30 September 2010
Oswaldo Arcia had a great season in Elizabethtown this year! The 19 year old had an awesome .375/.424/.672 line in 283 plate appearances at rookie Elizabethtown. His OPS took a .300+ spike over his previous 2 seasons. So, is Arcia a stud prospect now? I had him as my #25 prospect last season and would have to rank him near the top if I used the same formula as I did last season. He has become a guy that the bloggers have gotten excited about. He seems like the kind of guy to tell all of my casual Twins fan buddies about, but is he for real?
Last year, I had Josmil Pinto as my top overall prospect. He had a .332/.387/.610 line as a 20 year old last season for Elizabethtown. How did he do this season? Well, in low A Beloit, he posted a line of .225/.295/.378. The placing of Pinto as my #1 prospect was roundly questioned. I used a formula based on age and level that seems to be flawed, certainly when evaluating rookie ball players vs. players on full season teams. I'm guessing the same formula would have a hard time placing Pinto in the top 50 this season. In 2008, Angel Morales, as an 18 year old, posted a .301/.413/.623 in E-town. The following season, he went .266/.329/.455 in Beloit. He started this season in Beloit as well, before moving up. Morales is still a decent prospect, but going into his 21st year, he certainly is not as regarded as he was in E-town.
So, what do we make of Arcia's season? His OPS is even higher than those of Morales in 08 and Pinto in 09. He was a lightly regarded prospect prior to 2010, but largely unknown. If his OPS drops to .775 as a 20 year old in Beloit, he'll still be looked at as a decent prospect, but not nearly as regarded as now. How do you think he'll do next year? Where should he rank in the Twins prospects? I'm guessing, I'll rank him in the teens. The rank will be based on age and rookie ball stats.
Arcia is very young, but if his E-town season is a reasonable indicator, he could be another high end outfield prospect in the Twins system. Hopefully he hits when he gets to Wisconsin!
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