6. Liam Hendriks, RHP, 21 years old
2010 stats: 8-4 with a 1.74 ERA, 105/12 K/BB in 108.2 innings between Beloit and Fort Myers.
Last year's rank: N/A
Acquired: Signed out of Perth, Australia in February 2007.
So, what makes someone a top prospect? Some prospects are more tools than numbers. The guys that scouts just look at and drool over the possibilities. They say, this guy will be the next.... Other guys become top prospects through hard-work and sheer numbers. Liam Hendriks is part of the latter group.
The Australian hurler made his debut in the GCL at 18 years of age, striking out 52 and walking 11 in 44 innings. A nice start to his professional career. In 2008, back surgery derailed his entire season. In 2009, he came back from injury and made the Australian roster in the World Baseball Classic. He was the roster's youngest player. After the WBC, he split the season between Elizabethtown and Beloit. He had a decent year with a 3.55 ERA, 75 strikeouts and 19 walks in 83.2 innings. Not a bad year for such a young guy, especially one who had missed a year of development.
In 2010, Hendriks returned to Beloit and he took off. Total Domination! In 6 starts and 34 innings he struck out 39 and walked 4. He only gave up 16 hits. That's a .59 WHIP! This earned him a quick promotion to Fort Myers. He was almost as dominant after his promotion. In 74.2 innings, he struck out 66 and walked 8. For the season, he had a 1.74 ERA, 8.75 K/BB rate and a .837 WHIP between Beloit and Fort Myers. He only gave up 2 HRs all season.These are crazy, off the charts type numbers.
He has 4 good pitches, but no single dominating pitch. His fastball touches the low 90s and he also features a decent curve and change-up. What made Hendriks so dominant in 2010 was his control. He only walked 12 guys in 108.2 innings. Coincidentally, Cliff Lee walked 12 in 108.2 innings for the Texas Rangers in 2010. While I'm not saying Hendriks can be the next Cliff Lee*, his 2010 numbers and stuff profile out to a similar kind of pitcher, albeit a right-handed one. *Lee only walked 6 in 103.2 innings in Seattle and 2 of his TX walks were intentional.
Hendriks will only be 22 years old in 2011 and it would seem he is just starting to hit his stride. The only thing slowing Hendriks down is injury. He's already had back surgery. Hopefully the nerve issue doesn't lead to something chronic. He was selected to the 2010 All-Star Futures Game but he missed the game due to appendicitis. These are two un-related types of maladies. Hopefully Hendriks is getting through a rash of random injuries early in his career and and is about to settle in for a long healthy career.
Ideal Scenario: Hendriks will probably start where he left off in Fort Myers. If he hits the ground running like he did in 2010, he should see an early New Britain promotion.
Path to the majors: Another good season in 2011 will leave Hendriks on the cusp of an MLB debut in 2012. With guys like Gibson, Bromberg, Wimmers and a decent major league staff all older and more advanced then the 22 year old Hendriks, 2013 is more realistic. If Hendriks has a season in 2011 like he did in 2010 however, the Twins might not be able to hold him back. He has middle of the rotation stuff but if he can keep his walk rate down, he could become an ace.
7. Oswaldo Arcia, outfielder, 19 years old
2010 stats: .375/.424/.672 with 67/19 K/BB in 64 games for Elizabethton Twins (Rookie)
Last year's rank: NA
Acquired: Signed out of Venezuela in July 2007
Before going absolutely berserk on opposing pitchers this season, young Arcia enjoyed two previous years of success at lower levels in the Twins' system. A mechanical mistake was nagging the outfielder's performance in the batting box, though, and was holding Arcia from even greater success.
Arcia was able to eliminate the hand-drop during his pre-swing, and exploded for an incredible triple-slash line of .375/.424/.672 with 14 home runs in the short season. According to Matthew Eddy, Arcia made this adjustment mid-season, though he struggled against south-paws (relatively speaking; Arcia's numbers against LHP are still phenomenal).
Baseball America's scouting report of Arcia claims that the 19-year old is capable of spreading the ball across all fields, so we can know his numbers aren't a product of Elizabethton's short right-field wall.
Defensively, Arcia doesn't hold any awe-inspiring skills or abilities, but should be able to hold his own in a corner outfield position. He can run well and has a strong arm, and shouldn't be a liability in a major-league outfield.
There are flaws in Arcia's game, to be sure, but focusing on those would be missing the point. Arcia is a 19-year old in a league full of 21 and 22 year olds, and he's dominating. Arcia needs more time in a batting box to learn how to better react to breaking balls, and needs to learn better balance as he progresses. Even so, there is plenty of time for Arcia to fine-tune his game, and develop his skills.
Ideal Scenerio: The Twins are in absolutely no hurry with Arcia, so the outfielder will likely spend next year between Beloit and Fort Myers, where the coaching staffs will take Arcia and mold him into a fine outfield prospect.
Path to the majors: Arica is one of many top outfield prospects in Minnesota's system, so he could be valuable trade material if the Twins solidify their major-league outfield before Arcia is ready. If there are still openings available, Arcia could see his first major-league action in 2013.
It took some crossed fingers and a small amount of luck, but the Twins managed to bring back Carl Pavano without breaking the bank.
For $16.5 million over the next two years, the Twins signed one of the best starting pitchers on this years' free agent market. As a fan, I'm very pleased with this deal. It's far less than what I was expecting Pavano to receive, and I believe the right-hander can pitch well enough for the next two years.
Even though I'm pleased, the deal is ripe for the picking from a game theory perspective. What did the Twins know, and when did they know it? If Pavano knew what he knows now, would he have accepted arbitration after last year?
Let's explore this deal in a little more detail...
8. Adrian Salcedo, RHP, 20 years old
(courtesy of minorleaguebaseball.com)
2010 stats: 5-6 4.15 ERA 81/18 K/BB in 93.1 innings for Elizabethtown (Rookie) & Fort Myers (High-A)
Last year's rank: #7
Acquired: Signed out of the Dominican Republic in December 2007
What is one of the main things the Twins are known for when it comes to their prospects? If you said patience, you are on my wavelength. So, why did the Twins start Adrian Salcedo in Fort Myers in 2010?
Salcedo has been mostly a man of mystery in Twins prospect circles. Many bloggers had him very high based on his young age (18) and outstanding numbers in 2009 for the Gulf Coast Twins. This site had him at #7 and I ranked him #3 at a different site. His numbers in 2009 really jumped out at you. He had a 1.46 ERA with 58 strikeouts and 3 walks in 61.2 innings in 09. He hit more batters (5) than he walked. That's an amazing 19.33 K/BB.
So, 2009 was amazing, but Salcedo is very young, he'd need more rookie ball exposure, maybe start the year in Elizabethtown. So, where do the normally conservative Twins move him in May of 2010? To High A Fort Myers of course! In his 6 starts at Fort Myers, he went 1-3 with a 6.26 ERA. He struck out 16 and walked 8 in 27.1 innings, in a league 3 levels higher than the one he pitched for in 2009. His numbers do not look good, but he also gave up an amazingly high .390 BABIP. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 4.77. He wasn't as bad as his ERA suggested, but he wasn't ready for the Florida State League and was moved down to Elizabethtown in June, once their season started.
At Elizabethtown, he was much better. He went 4-3 with a 3.27 ERA between starting and relieving. He struck out 65 and walked just 10 in 66 innings. Looking at the numbers, he probably should have been at E-town all year. The Twins must have wanted to get him facing live hitting before the rookie league season started.
Salcedo has a low 90s fastball plus a curve, change and slider. He's 6'4" and since he is so young, he could really add to his frame.
Ideal Scenerio: Salcedo will be 20 when the season starts and should start the season in Beloit's rotation.
Path to the majors: Salcedo was used some in the bullpen at Elizabethtown, but the Twins probably still view him as a starter. If he starts the year hot in Beloit, he could return to Fort Myers more seasoned. If the Twins are indeed committed to fast-track him, he could get to the majors around 2013. There is no hurry, as he is very young and he hasn't pitched a full season yet.no comments
Life as a Twins' fan may be a roller-coaster, but its ups and downs are very predictable.
Most seasons, Minnesota fans live the summer months on the edge of their seats, waiting either for the Twins to surge ahead of their division rivals or fade out of competition. In the end, Minnesota's chronic competitiveness surprises even the most pessimistic of followers. A late-season let down almost always follows, but the Twins find themselves in the thick of the divisional race each October.
These successful seasons come after a boring winter spent far away from baseball's Hot Stove, where significant transactions involving the Twins were far and few between.
With the selection of Scott Diamond in the annual Rule V draft being the most notable Minnesota move, it's clear the Twins are in the midst of another boring winter. It's tough to watch other teams trading for ___ and signing superstars while your team seems more intent on filling out the roster of their Triple-A affiliate.
But the Twins have gone through winters like these many times before and always seem to find a way to compete. While many fans have spent the last few weeks worrying, the Twins have been busy. A Jim Thome signing was announced recently, and the team seems closer to an agreement with Carl Pavano every day. Neither Thome nor Pavano are the high-profile moves many hoped for, but both are well worth their price tag and a fine allotment of Minnesota's tight payroll.
In spite of another offseason spent nervously chewing on fingernails, Minnesota will manage to field a competitive team once again. Here's a rough outline of what the Twins roster is looking like for the 2011 season, along with projected wins above replacement in attempt to give a vague idea of how many wins to expect (an average of ZiPS, Bill James, and 'Fans' projections):
Click here to read more!
9. Ben Revere, outfielder, 22 years old
2010 stats: .305/.371/.363 with 41/32 K/BB in 94 games for New Britain (Double-A), .179/.233/.179 with 5/2 K/BB in 13 games with Twins
Last year's rank: #3
Acquired: Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 1st round of the 2007 June Major League Draft.
Revere takes a significant fall on this list not because of a poor performance last year, but because so many others have made positive strides. The Twins' 22-year old outfielder continued to dominate opposing pitchers in 2010, with an on-base average of .371 displaying his incredible plate discipline. Revere also maintained a high batting average, and ranked among the league leaders in the category.
While Revere seems to have those aspects of his game figured out, his power has yet to manifest itself. Long-hailed as having “raw power,” Revere hasn't hit more than two home runs in a season. I can be fairly confident when I predict that Revere will never be capable of hitting double-digit long balls in the big leagues, but that only slightly sours my opinion of him as a prospect.
Revere posted his fourth consecutive season with a batting average of at least .300 last year, and is an excellent contact hitter. His on-base percentage was also outstanding for the fourth straight year, and Revere's skill set is becoming more and more clear. If you need someone to get on base, Revere's your guy.
Injuries forced the Twins to give Revere playing time in 2010, prematurely giving the outfielder a harsh trial by fire. Revere isn't ready for big-league pitching, and the Twins won't feel the need to rush him.
Ideal scenario: Revere will be sent to New Britain again in order to finish a full season against Double-A opposition. About half-way through the season Revere will be promoted to Rochester, where he will play for the rest of the year and possibly to start 2012.
Path to the majors: Like last year, the Twins could find themselves desperate for an athletic outfielder late in the season. If that's the case, Revere will earn another September call-up and be given another chance to show off his great on-base skills. Left alone in Rochester, though, Revere could finish the season with the Red Wings. Whether or not he's called up to the big leagues this year, though, Revere should find himself on the 25-man roster for the 2012 season.no comments
10. David Bromberg, Starting Pitcher 23 years old
2010 stats: 6-9 with a 3.75 ERA 112/48 K/BB in 151.1 innings for New Britain and Rochester.
Last year's rank: #11
Acquired: Drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 32nd round of the 2005 June Major League Draft.
Who is the Twins best pitching prospect? Most fans say it's Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, or Liam Hendriks. Who do Twins fans think is next man in for the starting rotation? Most say Kyle Gibson. Has David Bromberg become a forgotten man?
Since signing with the Twins, Bromberg has collected many accolades. He was the Appalachian League pitcher of the year in 2007 and Florida State League most valuable pitcher and the Twins "Minor League Pitcher of the year" in 2009. In between those award winning years, all he did was lead all of minor league baseball with 177 strikeouts in 2008. He's been a minor league all-star several times.
Bromberg throws in the low to mid 90s a slider, slurve and change. He has struck out more than 1 per inning while giving up about a hit an inning and walking around 3 men per 9 in his minor league career. He's an imposing presence at 6'5". He has thrown 150 innings the last 3 seasons and he has the stuff and makeup to be a middle rotation starter. At 23 years old, he could be just an injury away from the major leagues.
With all of the accolades and ability, why is Bromberg getting lost in the pitching prospect shuffle? Well his 2010 numbers don't look that impressive. He was only 6-9 with a 3.75 ERA in 2010. His strikeout rate decreased by 4 Ks per 9 at New Britain in 2010 from his previous rates.
I wouldn't worry about his 2010 numbers. His K numbers came closer to his previous years once he was promoted to Rochester. His 6-9 record was with two really bad minor league teams. He also moved up 2 levels in 2010 after spending one full season at each level in the 4 seasons prior to 2010.
Ideal scenario: Bromberg will start the season for AAA Rochester. He is on the 40 man roster and may be the first starter called up if the Twins have a need. If Bromberg has a good season at Rochester, it gives the Twins extra depth to make trades.
Path to the majors: Bromberg has a great shot of reaching the majors in 2011. His journey to the majors is almost complete. He is on the 40-man roster (Kyle Gibson is not) and would be the most likely early season call-up to start or fill a long relief role if the Twins have needs. Bromberg and Gibson could be anchors of the rotation for many years. He has very good strikeout numbers, doesn't walk too many and has been dependable. An innings eater that could be an above average major league starter. Not bad for a 32nd round pick!