Should the Twins try to win their division, or build a team capable of winning the World Series?
This shouldn't come as a walloping shock to any of you, but the Twins aren't a good baseball team. They are allowing far more runs than they are scoring, they are receiving zero offensive production from what was supposed to be their greatest strength, and the team has one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Even so, the Twins are solidly in the “buyers” category this trade season.
Minnesota is currently on pace to win 76 games this year, several games below the .500 mark. But they remain just a handful of contests behind the division-leading Cleveland Indians, who have been suffering through a bout with injuries and appear to be on the verge of a collapse. The AL Central may be an awful division, filled with mediocre teams with serious flaws, but the Twins stand a very real chance of bringing home another division title.
But should the team go for it? If Minnesota reaches the postseason, another smack-down from an AL East team seems likely. Should the Twins trade away valuable prospects as they gun for the right to be slaughtered by the Red Sox or Yankees?
But it's a complicated question. Shedding payroll today to invest in tomorrow may result in a net gain of wins, but the sorry state of the AL Central needs to be factored into the equation. The Twins have a chance to qualify for the crapshoot that is the MLB playoffs.
They should certainly not pass up the opportunity, so long as they don't pay too high a price.
Following this afternoon's loss to the Indians, Minnesota is six (6) games out of first place in the AL Central. Steering clear of the injury bug should help the team claw back to within a couple games, and a minor trade or two will provide fans with compelling August and September games.
Minnesota doesn't need to target Jose Reyes or Ubaldo Jimenez in order to have a chance in the division. Trading for guys like Jason Frasor or Tom Gorzelanny won't require the team to mortgage their future.
Reyes would cost Kyle Gibson and Aaron Hicks, and give the team two months of excellent work at shortstop and a mid-first round draft pick. Frasor or Gorzelanny would cost David Bromberg and give the Twins much-needed bullpen stability. The former trade option could cripple the team's future; the latter could save its present.
The AL Central is filled with flawed teams. Whichever GM can plug the right holes before the trade deadline will win the division and earn the right to play baseball in October.
If the Twins feel they can fill the right holes at the right price, they should unquestionably gun for the division title. If adding a few wins to the current 25-man roster proves too costly, perhaps it's time to turn the page on the 2011 Twins.
Winning the division this year and building a championship team don't need to be mutually exclusive goals. But Bill Smith needs to act. It's time to get better or build for the future.
Sitting on your hands never helped anybody.
Nine players were in the Twins' batting order on Opening Day. Six of them are now injured.
The Twins are among the worst in the league in just about every offensive and defensive statistic. But it's not like they've been fielding a competitive team night in and night out...
The most frequently-used Twins' batting lineup this year includes a pitcher in the No. 9 hole. It has been used three times. Gardy has penned a total of 73 different batting orders in this year's 77 games.
Cuddyer and Casilla didn't factor into the Twins' long-term plans a few months ago. Now, they're two of the only things keeping the team from collapsing.
With 15 victories in their last 19 games, the Twins have been able to piece together some serious momentum this month.
The biggest reason for this winning stretch has been phenomenal pitching. While the lineup lacked the bats of Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, and Joe Mauer, the starting rotation and bullpen have combined for a league-best 2.08 ERA. The batting order may be producing at a mediocre level, but it seems the only thing holding the Twins's offense from disastrous levels are the bats of Michael Cuddyer and Alexi Casilla.
To say these two are unlikely heroes would be under-selling how little both Cuddyer and Casilla factored into the season's plans back in March.
At the beginning of the year, Cuddyer was viewed as an aging outfielder on his way out of the league; Casilla as a stalled prospect with little hope of sticking with the major-league club. Back in early April, fans were of the opinion that if the Twins had an opportunity to replace either Cuddyer or Casilla, they should take it.
Can two months really change someone's opinion about a player? Absolutely.
'Hot streaks' rarely impact the future performance of any given player, and there are any number of studies to support this. If someone pulls off an 8-10 streak, or even collects 20 hits in 25 consecutive at-bats, they're unlikely to hit significantly better than they were before.
You can look back on a season and distinguish hot and cold periods, but while in the midst of a streak it's impossible to predict the immediate future. It's like flipping a coin: tossing five 'heads' in a row doesn't make the the sixth toss more any more likely to be a 'tails,' or even another 'heads.'
But we're not talking about simple 10 or 25-at bat streaks. Cuddyer and Casilla have been knocking the cover off the ball for nearly two months. Since May 1, Casilla has hit .310/.369/.451 with 13 extra-base hits. During that same stretch, Cuddyer has hit .317/.380/.509 with 17 extra-base hits.
Over the last 30 days, both players have been among the 25 best batters in the league. This isn't any regular hot streak; this is a consistent pattern of performance, and certainly changes our valuations of these two players. Maybe Cuddyer still has some power left in his swing, and deserves some more playing time once Thome comes back. Maybe Casilla has finally found his swing, and could help the Twins form a very solid middle infield duo.
These shifts in perception hardly influence our decision on who should take the field for the next game. But two months of excellent play can't be chalked up to simply 'good luck.'
Thanks to two incredible months, you can't think of either Cuddyer or Casilla the way you thought of them two months ago.
Just how good of a fielder is Tsuyoshi Nishioka?
When the Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka last winter, they knew they weren't adding another power bat to the lineup. Minnesota hoped the Japanese star would bring his speed and bat control across the Pacific, but didn't know whether his defensive skills would allow him to effectively play either shortstop or second base.
There is no telling whether Nishioka's line-drive swing and speed on the base paths have cleared customs yet, as the 26-year old has played just 11 games this year. An unfortunate take-out slide prevented Nishioka from playing in Target Field's grass until mid-June, and nothing can be gleaned from such a small sample size.
What Twins fans can analyze, though, is how comfortable Nishioka looks in Minnesota's infield.
Since his return, Nishioka has played five games at shortstop for the Twins. Many balls have been hit his way, and he's been given dozens of chances to prove his worth.
After the jump, I'll take a look at each time Nishioka touched the ball in his Target field debut. It's a very small sample size, but the "scouting" aspect of the game is almost as important as numbers and actual performance. By re-watching this June 16 game, I hope to find clues to several questions people have about Nishioka: Does he look comfortable? Is he still getting used to the grass infield? Will he be a defensive liability for the team?
Let's find out...
A few short weeks ago, Twins fans were preparing for one of the biggest fire-sales in franchise history. Now, many are preparing for October baseball.
The Twins have won each of the five series they've played this month. They swept a four-game series against the Royals, a three-game set against the Padres, and a two-game stand against the White Sox. Minnesota has gained plenty of ground in the AL Central, but they're still just eight games behind the division leader.
Even though the Twins opened the season with twice as many losses as wins, they still hope to compete. If that's not evidence of how awful the AL Central is this year, I don't know what is.
Let me paint you a picture: Minnesota continues to soar through interleague play, and wins at least nine of the next 12 games. To close the season, the Twins play like they did in 2010 and win 58 percent of their remaining games. That would give them a final record of 86-76. Is that enough to win the division?
Or, more importantly, is that enough wins to give the Twins a chance to become buyers at the trade deadline?
The Cleveland Indians are going to slowly fade from the playoff picture in the AL Central, and the Detroit Tigers are currently on pace for 88 wins. If 90 wins is enough to qualify for the postseason, the Twins have got to bring in any help they can find. Whether that be through an expensive half-year rental (Vladimir Guerrero?), an effective trade (Michael Cuddyer, a few million dollars, and a B-level prospect for Kevin Gregg?), or an impact-making mid-season promotion (Kyle Gibson?), it's going to be tough to find any maneuvering space in the $113 million payroll.
But that's not to say the Twins shouldn't feel obligated to make a move if they are within sight of the AL Central leader. Even though they wouldn't be a favorite in the postseason, the “anything can happen in the playoffs” cliché applies, and the extra few million in extra expenses would be quickly recovered.
Come July 4, if Minnesota can count on two hands the number of games they're behind, they need to make a move. But getting to that point won't be an easy task, even in the laughably-soft AL Central. The Twins need to finish filling the hole they created in the first two months of the season, and they have to do it as soon as possible.
There are still 92 games to be played this year, but I'm going to create a series of short-term goals Twins fans can use to gauge the team's ability to contend.
The first on the list: Nine victories in the next 12 interleague games.
Failing this goal doesn't necessarily end their season, but if the Twins aren't in a position to compete as they head into the All-Star Break, they should feel free to hold a fire-sale; fold their cards, and reload the roster for next season.
But if they hope to compete this year, every game counts. And time is running out.
I tossed in the towel a few weeks ago. Is it too late to take it back?
The Twins were more than a dozen games out of the divisional race, injuries had ravaged the lineup, and those who had managed to stay healthy weren't performing well. I was growing disinterested in Minnesota's major-league club, and turned my eyes to the future.
It was time to call it quits.
I was hardly alone in making this jump. I just jumped earlier than most. But now that the team has won nine of their last eleven, I want back on board.
The growing prevalence of social media and knee-jerk reactions makes it difficult to watch a baseball game without rooting for either team to win. Long gone are the days where you can enjoy a game without caring about the outcome. As a fan of a team over 16 games behind the division leaders, I decided a few weeks ago that I would rather see the Twins lose than win.
Minnesota has an excellent scouting and development team, and are more than willing to spend money in the draft. If the Twins were to qualify for a high draft pick next June, they would undoubtedly be able to sign some of the best amateur talent in the country. If a team is willing to spend as much as $5 million on a signing bonus, a high draft pick can be turned into a left-handed ace or an MVP-caliber infielder.
But it turns out Minnesota can't even properly secure the top overall pick in next year's MLB Draft. It's time for me to stop worrying exclusively about the future and enjoy this stretch for what it is: an exciting time where the Twins can do no wrong.
Tonight, when Carl Pavano takes on the White Sox in Target Field, I will be rooting for a Twins win. And I don't want to apologize for wanting my “fan-hood card” back.
The Twins have lost just three times this month, and are sprinting back into the division race. They still have a lot of ground to cover, but there are reasons to be optimistic: the bullpen has been fantastic as of late, and the lineup is slated to receive reinforcements as several top players return from the disabled list.
Is a healthy Joe Mauer the only thing holding this team back? Probably not. Will Tsuyoshi Nishioka's presence in the infield significantly improve the team's winning percentage? I doubt it. But those two returns -- combined with Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Glen Perkins, and Denard Span – make Twins fans excited for these next few weeks.
I still don't think the Twins can contend in the division this year, much less reach the postseason. The hole they dug in April and May can't be filled by a two-week surge. Is it possible? Sure. But if they intend on being the last team standing in the AL Central, they'll have to catch some lightning in a bottle.
And I want to be rooting for them while they try.no comments
On the surface, it seems the Twins' season has taken a turn for the better.
But we all know better.
Minnesota may have jumped ahead a few games in the standings, but they're still the same dismal team they've always been. This same team that won just five of their last 23 games to close out the month of May has now won seven of their last eight. If that's not the definition of an aberration, I don't know what is.
While the Twins suffer through their worst season in franchise history (at least since the team moved to Minnesota), blame is dished out to everyone and fingers point in each direction. Finding a single lightning rod to direct all of our frustration is impossible; too many people have made too many mistakes.
After being swept by the Detroit Tigers on June 1, the Twins were 17-37 and 16.5 games behind the division leader. That's just a tad better than the pace set by the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. Even the most steadfast of fans had given up all hope of contention, and watching a complete Twins game became a feat of Herculean magnitude.
It was then the Twins decided to turn things around. Only, they really haven't.