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Twins Target - A Minnesota Twins blog

Written by Andrew Kneeland | 21 September 2010

“What would a batting order of Twins blogs look like?”
- Jesse Lund, TwinkieTown

TwinkieTown's Jesse Lund posed this question the other day, and I'm going to take the bait. Hitting the Foul Pole lined up several Twins bloggers into the ideal pitching staff, and now I'm going to take a stab at arranging a batting order.

I'll be the bat-boy. Sit back, relax, and enjoy a tour of some of the best and brightest minds in the Twins' blogosphere!

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 18 September 2010

Over at Twins MVB, I took a look at recent postseason history and the real benefits of possessing home-field advantage in the playoffs. With a chance at being the league's top seed as they head into the postseason, should the Twins feel comfortable? Absolutely not. There's a long road ahead.

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 14 September 2010

This was originally going to be my column for tomorrow's Green Valley Newspaper, but I remembered the similar battles going on in the NL West and AL East, and decided to scrap most of my AL Central rambling. Here's the full cut of what I wrote about the Twins. The trimmed-down version can be found here.

Tonight, the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins will square off for the first game in a crucial late-season series between two teams vying for the American League Central crown. The Twins are comfortably ahead in the standings, and with the season winding down, this could be Chicago's last stand.

The AL Central has required a Game 163 for each of the last two years, and the divisional race remains close this season. Though Minnesota has a firm grip on the division, and Chicago will need to push all their chips forward during this head-to-head matchup, anything can happen. Should this series not go favorably for the White Sox, Chicago's south-side squad could be sitting as many as nine games behind the Twins with just 16 contests left to be played.

Contrary to what some would have you believe, Minnesota is a legitimate World Series contender, and one of the best teams in the league. As Phil Mackey mentions, Twins' fans may suffer from an inferiority complex based on the struggle (along with failure and ineptitude) of local sporting teams. Mackey puts it best: “Let's treat the Twins (39-16 since the All-Star break) like they deserve to be treated, as a World Series contender that can compete with, and beat, anybody in baseball -- not as a team that is desperately clinging to a six-game lead with 19 games to go. The Twins aren't just a pesky team playing over its head. They are legitimate contenders.”

No, the Twins aren't simply the best team in a poor division battling for home-field advantage in the postseason. They are a team made up of several excelling offensive stars, as well as an outstanding one-two rotation punches. They have been playing well above their heads for the last month of so, but a six-game lead will be tough to lose.

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Written by Shawn Berg | 13 September 2010

Whenever a potential move needs to be  made by the Twins, the name Estarlin De Los Santos finds its way to the top of the blogosphere's drop list. If Anthony Slama needs to be added to the 40 man, the Twins can take off De Los Santos. If Justin Morneau comes off the 60 day DL, the Twins can DFA (designate for assignment) De Los Santos, etc.... So who is Estarlin De Los Santos? Is he so terrible?

De Los Santos was signed by the Twins in 2005 out of Villa Mella, Dominican Republic. He was added to the 40 man roster after the 2009 season. Coming into his 23rd year, this surprised a lot of fans. As a 22 year old, he hit .290/.330/.397 in High A Fort Myers with 11 stolen bases in 15 attempts. He had decent numbers at Fort Myers and is very good defensively but by no means, was he an overwhelming prospect.

One thing in De Los Santos favor is there were only 5 other players to play SS on the Twins 40 man. Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla and J.J. Hardy were the only other SS, with Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto also able to play short. In fact, the system is nearly bereft of shortstops. It seemed like an odd choice at the time, but De Los Santos was the next best middle infielder in need of protecting. With his age, speed, a little bat and good defense at a premium position, it shouldn't have come as such a shock that he'd be added to the 40 man roster. His numbers as a 23 year old in A+ ball are similar to those of Matt Tolbert put up at the same age and level.

In 2010, De Los Santos has been slightly disappointing. After hitting .274/.340/.346 with 13 steals in 15 attempts in a return to Fort Myers, he was promoted to AA New Britain. Once promoted, he struggled big time. He hit only .177/.249/.245 with 6 steals in 14 attempts. When fans see those numbers, it makes sense that they'd think De Los Santos would be dropped off the roster, the first time the Twins need a roster spot. But it hasn't happened.

I think there is a real chance De Los Santos isn't dropped from the roster after the season. Hardy will probably be retained by the club for 2011, but second baseman Orlando Hudson will probably not be retained. Taking Hudson's spot will be either Alexi Casilla or Trevor Plouffe with Matt Tolbert also available. Nick Punto will most likely be let go due to a $5 million club option, injury and declining skill.

There are not a lot of options to add to the roster in the system at SS or even 2b. James Beresford might be one SS to add to the roster. He will only be 22. He hit .295/.347/.360 and stole 14 bases in 28 attempts in his second year at low A ball Beloit. He is 2 years younger than De Los Santos, but also 2 levels behind him in the system. The Twins could also choose to add Steve Singleton to the 40 man roster, though they didn't protect him following 2009. Singleton had a .267/.325/.410 for New Britain, playing mostly 2b. These numbers are similar to his 2009 numbers. He is a year and a half older than De Los Santos and has a little bit better bat, but will most likely go unclaimed again.

Estarlin De Los Santos is not a great prospect by any means. Soon to be 24, he is not terribly young anymore. He would return to AA next season and will profile as the next closest shortstop prospect to the major leagues. While no one should be too disappointed if he is removed from the 40 man roster, no one should be too surprised if he is left on the roster. Should the Twins drop him and add Beresford or Singleton or both? Do they add Beresford and keep De Los Santos on the 40 man? Do they find depth elsewhere? Do they go into 2011 with only 5 middle infielders, including Luke Hughes on the 40 man? I'm guessing he has one more year to grow, before the Twins give up their protection of him. They could drop him and he may go unclaimed, but another team may need SS depth. I believe he stays on the 40 man roster. He will return as the 40 man pariah.

 

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Written by Shawn | 11 September 2010

Let me introduce myself, My name is Shawn Berg, I am the author of OntheroadwithShawn. It's a baseball blog where I tackle various Twins, minor league and general baseball topics. For TwinsTarget, I will be posting minor league thoughts a couple times a week, or as inspiration dictates.

With my first post, I will introduce you to my favorite Twins prospect, Joe Benson. He plays all outfield positions and is capable of playing a very good center field. The 22 year old was a Twins 2nd round draft pick in 2006 out of Joliet Catholic Academy in Joliet, Illinois. He is not as highly thought of in Twins prospect circles as Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, or Angel Morales, but he should be. He is a similar, if more advanced player than Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales. Hicks most likely will walk a little more than Benson. He is the same age as Revere and has much more power and is a better fielder, if not as fast a runner.

In 2009, he batted .285/.414/.403 for Fort Myers with 14 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He ranked #4 overall in my Twins prospect list coming into 2010. At the time, I said "he is developing into a prototypical lead off or #2 hitter. He's another of many high-end outfield prospects in the Twins organization." Well in 2010, his power has taken off. The 6'2" 211 lb. Benson finally added power that his frame would suggest. Prior to 2010, Benson topped out at 5 HRs in a season. He had a .259/.343/.538 line with 27 HRs, 31 doubles and 8 triples for Fort Myers and New Britain. He also stole 19 bases in 28 tries. His .527 slugging percentage at New Britain ranked 5th in the Eastern League of players with 300 plus plate appearances. His .862 OPS ranked 11th of players with 300 plus PA. His 23 HRs ranked 4th in the league. He probably isn't a going to be a 1 or 2 hitter after-all, though he hits at the top of the order for New Britain.

I have seen him play 3 times this season. When he was named as one of seven Twins to make the Arizona Fall league, I posted a scouting report on the 7 players.

This was my scouting report on Benson:

I saw him in June and wrote this: He's 22 and LaVelle E. Neal thinks he'll arrive in 2012. For some reason, he was sent back to Fort Myers this year. I personally think he is a better player than Revere right now. He certainly looks to have more upside. He is almost as fast as Revere but also has power. He went 2-5 with a 2B and a walk on Wednesday and 1-4 with a HR in Thursday's game. He leads New Britain with 9 HRs. The bounce in power is great especially since he is considered more of a speed guy. He already has 13 HRs in 2010 between Fort Myers/New Britain. He's never had more than 5 HRs in a season. If Micheal Cuddyer were traded in the off-season, Benson may be better equipped then Revere to replace some of his offense by next season.

I also saw him in August: He went 0-5 and some of his swings were really hard. Carlos Gomez hard. He is certainly the best prospect in AA for the Twins currently, but he has some work to do. I love watching him in the field and he has legitimate power. He also might be wound to tight. He got mad a couple times during the game, tossing his helmet hard into the dugout and also on the field after just missing his pitch and flying out. The kind of reaction usually reserved for strikeouts. Benson has a ton of tools and potential that is starting to show. I hope he is able to keep his emotions in check and just enjoy the game a little more. He has enough ability to go a long way someday soon.

Benson is a 5 tool player that could be a future star for the Twins. He can hit, hit for power, steal a base, plays great defense and has a good arm. He is more than capable in center field but may eventually shift to a corner. When he is in the lineup with Ben Revere, Revere has played center. Benson has also improved his on-base skills in the last couple of seasons.

The one flaw in his game is his strikeout rate. Benson struck out 136 times in 519 plate appearances in 2010. His 115 Eastern League K's ranked 11th and his total of 136 would have placed him in 6th place for the league. That's a strikeout every 3.82 plate appearances. Many mention his strikeout rate as a reason to keep Benson in AA for another season and it may be a fair reaction. Give him more time to work on this flaw before promoting him to AAA or the majors. As a comparison, the Twins strikeout leader this year is Jason Kubel. He has 102 strikeouts in 515 plate appearances. Kubel never had more than 59 Ks in any minor league season. Benson's strikeouts are a problem. Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn never struck out that much in the minors.

Joe Benson will be added to the 40 man roster over the winter and will get a look in spring training before he gets sent back to AA. Between Arizona Fall league and his return to New Britain, Benson should be tasked with lowering his K rate. If he can do that, he will be ready to make an impact with the big league club as soon as mid-season. Guys like Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales and Ben Revere could be great players for the Twins, but Joe Benson is the most likely to do it first.

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 11 September 2010

I'm about the commit the cardinal sin among American League Central baseball bloggers: assume my team makes the playoffs. A lot can happen in the next 21 games, but I'm feeling fairly confident in Minnesota's 93 percent playoff probability.

Even though the Twins will likely win the division, though, there doesn't seem to be much optimism among Minnesota fans. The general consensus, at least from where I sit, appears to be that if the Twins manage to qualify for the MLB postseason, the tough American League East will be more than happy to knock them right back out.

It happened last year, and many seem to think it will happen again.

In 2010, though, the Twins have a better team than last year, and could manage to clinch home-field advantage. This squad, the first in Target Field's history, is much better than last year's team. And the 2010 Twins are much better than the average playoff team.

Here's how the Twins stack up against all teams that have qualified for the playoffs in the last 50 yearsb.

Team Batting Average On-Base Slugging Team ERA Walks per 9 IP Strikeouts per 9 IP
Average Playoff Team .268 .338 .419 3.77 3.12 6.18
2010 Minnesota Twins .277 .345 .428 3.84 2.3 6.4
Average WS Winner .266 .333 .410 3.55 3.07 6.01

Minnesota may not stack up well against the New York Yankees or Tampa Bay Rays, but the neutralizing Target Field could prove to be a big advantage.

So let's get Justin Morneau back on the team, wrap this division up, and take this show to the playoffs.

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 04 September 2010

The Minnesota Twins have made another move in their battle against a never-ending string of injuries, announcing today that they would be purchasing the contract of top outfield prospect Ben Revere.

Revere is generally considered one of Minnesota's best prospects, and should have a long major-league career. He has zero experience at the Triple-A level, though, so his current stay with the Twins is almost certainly temporary. Here is what I wrote about Revere a few months ago as a part of my Top 15 Prospects countdown.

3. Ben Revere, OF, 21 years old

2009 stats: .311/.372/.369, 517 PA, 2 HR, 34/40 K/BB, 45/17 SB/CS at Ft. Myers (A+)
Last year’s rank: 2
Acquired: 1st round selection of the Minnesota Twins in the 2007 draft

When this high-schooler was drafted a few years ago, there were many people who questioned the Twins' brass. Revere was considered to be one of the fastest guys in the '07 draft class, but had no shortage of flaws. His arm was below-average, he had little power, and no offensive bat to speak of.

What Minnesota saw, though, was a young kid with tremendous speed, great makeup, and an eager desire to improve as he aged. Two years have passed, and Revere is proving all doubters wrong. Although he still lacks a powerful swing, Revere was just named the Twins' Minor-League Hitter of the Year, his second award in as many years.

This past season Revere managed to hit .311/.372/.369 in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League. He stole 45 bases in 62 attempts, which was third in the league. One area of concern among some scouts was Revere's lack of patience at the plate. For whatever reason, some viewed the young lefty as a free-swinger. Revere quieted those scouts this past season, when he drew 40 walks and struck out just 34 times.

Revere has steadily progressed through the system, and is the organization's best hitter. Power-wise, several scouts remain sure that Revere will be able to hit around 15 home runs per season once he hits the major leagues. Through his first three years in the minor leagues, Revere has yet to hit more than two in a single-season.

Considering Revere's muscular frame, his lack of throwing power is puzzling. The young outfielder displays some great gap power, so his throwing technique is probably to blame for his below-average defensive rating.

He remains below-average defensively, but lacks nothing a few years of further instruction couldn't remedy. Last year, Revere spent some time in extended spring training to work on a throwing program that has improved both his throwing strength and accuracy. Slowly yet surely, Revere is utilizing all of his abilities.

 

Ideal scenario: Revere will start the 2010 season in Double-A New Britain, where he will most likely spend the entire year. The Twins are known for their incredibly conservative approach towards top prospects, and Revere likely won't be rushed. He will spend the 2011 season in Triple-A Rochester, and could break into the Big Leagues either that September or out of Spring Training in 2012.

Path to the majors: Things could get interesting for the Twins' outfield in a few years. The majority of Minnesota's top prospects are outfielders, and they will contribute to an already-jammed outfield. Denard Span, Delmon Young, Angel Morales, Aaron Hicks, Ben Revere, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and several others could be competing for the same three positions. This is obviously a good problem to have, but it could result in a position change for many elite prospects.

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 03 September 2010

From the looks of things, the residual effects of last night's debacle of a game will continue to be seen for the next few days.

The Twins used a total of eight pitchers in the 13-inning series finale against the Detroit Tigers last night. Tuesday's starter, Brian Duensing, pitched two innings of the sloppy contest. Even Nick Blackburn, who was originally scheduled to start tonight's game against the Texas Rangers, was called upon to throw an inning.

With a depleted bullpen and a rotation in no shape to fill rotation gaps on the fly, there are precious few options at the starting pitcher position for tonight's series opener against the always-tough Rangers.

Here are Minnesota's options:

 

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 31 August 2010

Few seem to think much of Manny Ramirez these days.

Known to have one of the most egocentric personalities in sports, Ramirez's “Manny Being Manny” moniker hasn't been making many headlines since his move to Los Angeles. Despite the lack of press, though, Ramirez still possesses one of baseball's best bats.

Once Ramirez was dealt to the Chicago White Sox this past week, the national coverage returned. Forgive me if I'm a little surprised to see one of baseball's most powerful outfielders suddenly described as a useless player whose prime is long past. Last I checked, this “old-timer” was hitting .311/.405/.510 with a very good walk rate. Is the reason for Manny's dismissal because of his low home run and RBI figures?

I thought we were smarter than that.

Yes, Ramirez has suffered through a series of three costly injuries this season, the most recent of which sidelined him for 35 days according to Corey Dawkin's Baseball Injury Tool. Over the next month, Ramirez could very easily re-aggravate his calf or hamstring and be sent right back to the disabled list. But if he stays healthy he makes the White Sox a much better team.

None of Ramirez's numbers this season indicate any serious regression on the horizon. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is right around his career average, and none of his batted ball ratios are very far from what is usually expected of the slugger. Yes, the 38-year old has lost any foot speed he once had, and is miserable defensively, but there is no reason to expect anything less than “very good” from Ramirez for the remainder of the 2010 season.

Ramirez will certainly make Chicago a better team, especially considering whose playing time he will be assuming. Currently manning the designated hitter role in the Windy City is Mark Kotsay, whose .239/.310/.388 triple-slash line is laughably poor, especially considering his position.

By replacing Kotsay's at-bats with Ramirez' for the remaining 31 games of the regular season improves the White Sox by roughly one win. Especially in the AL Central, where a Game 163 has been required the last two years, one win makes a huge difference.

Ramirez certainly doesn't give the White Sox a better chance of winning the division than the Twins, but it evens the race up by a considerable margin. Don't start the “woe is me” chants yet, though, the Twins are a better team with plenty of opportunities to further cushion their divisional lead.

Besides, even if Ramirez goes on an offensive rampage and makes the two AL Central teams more evenly matched, Minnesota has a four-game head start.

But let's be honest: Minnesota is a better offensive team than Chicago, even factoring in Ramirez's impact over the next month. The Twins also have a better rotation, and a much better bullpen. If the two teams were to play 31 head-to-head contests, Minnesota would certainly come out on top.

Let's just hope that any lucky breaks Chicago receives isn't enough to overcome the Twins' superiority.

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Written by Andrew Kneeland | 27 August 2010

Per Ken Rosenthal, and La Velle confirms.

Minnesota will give up a player to be named later. Fuentes is owed about $1.89 million for the rest of this season, and has a vesting option of $9 million for next season if the left-hander finishes 55 games in 2010. Currently at 33, the Twins likely nabbed him from the Angels because they knew it was unlikely he would reach that expensive plateau.

Brian Fuentes, 34, has been an elite reliever for quite a few years. While he is now living on past reputation and accumulated saves, he is still a viable relief option for a contending team.

The Twins hope Fuentes continues to annihilate left-handed pitching for the remainder of this season. Through just under 40 innings, Fuentes has a 2.24 xFIP against southpaws, and has held lefties to a triple-slash line of just .132/.209/.158. Fuentes is also one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, averaging 9.2 third-strike-calls per nine innings.

The veteran spent 15 days on the disabled list earlier this season with a mid back strain. His back has been a troublesome spot for the lefty in the past, so complete health this month and next is not a guarantee. Fuentes has remained healthy and effective since his April injury, though, and will join the Minnesota bullpen soon.

Hours after the White Sox were rumored to have won the waiver claim on Manny Ramirez, the Twins responded with this acquisition. Ramirez certainly helps Chicago and gives them a better chance at taking down the Twins, so Minnesota GM Bill Smith may have felt the need to respond.

An aging reliever won't have anywhere near the impact Ramirez will have on the White Sox, but even a marginal upgrade is significant in this AL Central race. Fuentes will join Matt Capps and Jon Rauch to form a relief corps filled with three potential closers. Bullpen depth is never a bad thing, especially if it doesn't come at a great expense.

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