Twins Target - A Minnesota Twins blog
Did the Twins just have execute a "perfect" offseason?
JJ Hardy. Carl Pavano. Clay Condrey. Jim Thome. Orlando Hudson. (Joe Mauer?) Talk about a study in a wise allocation of resources.
After the 2009 regular season, the Twins had several clear and crucial needs, most notably their nearly empty infield. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were the only two guaranteed starters, while Nick Punto’s versatility would allow him to start at any one of the 2B/SS/3B holes in the Minnesota infield.
Needing to fill two of 2B/SS/3B, the Twins immediately got into action, trading away center fielder Carlos Gomez for shortstop JJ Hardy shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. While a starting staff extremely prone to the fly ball will miss Gomez’s defense, the young outfielder likely wouldn’t have received any regular playing time. Hardy played miserably last year, but the Twins feel confident that they will be able to help him return to his previous status.
The Twins also awarded a contract to veteran starting pitcher Carl Pavano, who posted a 4.00 FIP last season in just under 200 innings. His durability will be crucial for the Twins, as will -- though it pains a stats geek like myself to say -- his “veteran presence.” Clay Condrey was the next free agent brought aboard by the Twins. The bullpen wasn't a primary area of concern, but Condrey will fill a useful (albeit minimal) role in the 2010 bullpen. Condrey is a sinker-ball pitcher who will be very welcome in Minnesota.
Jim Thome was then signed to a very cheap one-year deal. He won't play every day, but the future Hall-of-Famer doesn't seem to have a problem with that. Thome gives the Twins some non-Cuddyer depth at first base, and is also available to slide into the full-time designated hitter position should Jason Kubel need to replace an injured outfielder for an extended period of time. Most importantly, though, Thome will provide the Twins with a legitimate power threat off the bench, something they have been bereft of for quite some time.
Minnesota then shocked their fan-base by signing another part of the 2B/SS/3B hole in Orlando Hudson. Excluding the (hopefully) inevitable Joe Mauer extension, this move was perhaps the most significant of the entire offseason for the Twins. Not only does Hudson provide the Twins with an above-average option at second base, but the switch-hitting 32-year old gives the Twins a legitimate No. 2 hitter to bat before Mauer, and breaks up the long streak of left-handed batters in the lineup.
A significant increase in revenue was received as a result of the opening of Target Field, and most of that was pumped right back into the team. The Twins are tip-toeing the line between small- and large-market, with their payroll inching closer to the $100 million mark. They spent a lot of money this offseason, and several holes were filled.
Obviously, some center-field depth would be nice to have, as would an ace to head up the rotation, though neither of these were priorities. Assuming the Twins spent as much money as they had available, did they spread their resources wisely?
What would you have done differently? Who would you have targeted before Orlando Hudson or Carl Pavano? Did the Twins have a "successful" offseason in your eyes? Be sure to leave you thoughts in the comment section below!
no commentsThis is where the fun of Nick Punto Day will really be held.
As a way to keep track of the dozens of blog entries regarding our favorite 5'9'', 170 lb., scrappy infielder, I ask that all who have access to Twitter post the link to their blogs along with the #NickPuntoDay hashtag. (If you don't have a Twitter account and have no interest in creating one, feel free to email me your story and I'll link to it below.)
Again, please Tweet the links to your stories with "#NickPuntoDay" included somewhere in the tweet. By using those magic words, your tweet will find its way to the box I have created below.
The purpose of this Nick Punto Day is to learn from and about other Twins' bloggers. Feel free to browse through the tweets below, and try to read them all!
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I know that many of you disagree, some vehemently. Here are three simple statements about Punto that need to be known, and that will perhaps change your opinion of the most controversial utility infielder in the state of Minnesota.
1.Nick Punto is an above average base runner.
I won’t use advanced statistics much during this piece, but EqBRR (Equivalent Base-Running Runs) is just too good to pass up. This stat combined not only stolen bases, but also ground, air, and hit advancements. EqBRR sums those totals and adjusts them so they can be read easily.
Punto’s EqBRR last season was 4.3, the 14th highest total in the league. Punto led the Twins last year in that category. Despite the taste left in your mouth after the base-running blunder against the Yankees last October, Punto is usually smart on the base paths.
2.Nick Punto is an excellent defender.
Although he is 32 years old, Punto remains a very solid defensive player at several key positions. Punto’s playing time last season was split between second base and shortstop, two of the four toughest defensive positions on the diamond. In 58 games at shortstop in 2009, Punto had a UZR/150 of 4.7. In 63 games at second last year, he posted a UZR/150 of 9.4
This total at shortstop is well below his career average, and far below his 2008 total. When viewing these defensive numbers, though, it is important to realize the small-sample size of just about every year. It’s ironic, but Punto’s versatility makes it difficult to examine his defensive statistics on a year-to-year basis.
Throughout his career, Punto has played an almost identical amount of time at second, shortstop, and third base. His UZR/150 at second is 3.9, while it is 18.1 at second and 19.9 at third.
Only average offensive production is required from a player of Punto’s defensive caliber.
3.Nick Punto is an above average No. 9 hitter.
Last season was a down year for Punto offensively, when he posted a line of .228/.337/.284, while the league-average No. 9 hitter hit .245/.305/.349. What should draw your attention is the on-base-percentage, the second number listed in the slash stats.
The most important offensive role of a No. 9 hitter is to not record an out. By getting on base, the No. 9 hitter can prolong a rally for another run through the batting order. Punto is extremely patient at the plate – he took the most pitches per plate appearance on the team, last year, in fact – and posted an OBP well above the league average for a No. 9 hitter.
No, Punto can’t hit and no, Punto can’t hit for power. But he can get on base, which is all a manager can ask of his No. 9 hitter.
Now, let me be clear about something: Ideally, Punto should be a utility infielder that comes off the bench. We lack the personnel to make that happen, though, so Punto will, and should, start just about every day until Danny Valencia is ready. If there were a quality third baseman on the team, Punto should be limited to a utility role.
Although he has zero power to speak of (12 career home runs to go with a .324 slugging percentage), Punto is a good option at third base and the 9th position in the batting order for the 2010 season.
Manager Ron Gardenhire may give him some favoritism, but we should be happy to have Little Nicky Punto. no comments
The 2001 MLB Draft could be labeled as a success, if for no other reason than bringing Joe Mauer to the Twin Cities. In 2001, the Twins focused on a thick crop of prep talent, as their first four picks were fresh out of high school. So far, it looks as if two of those first four picks are bound for successful major league careers. Let’s take a look at the Twins' notable selections in the 2001 Draft.
1st Round (1st overall) – Joe Mauer, C
Despite the criticism this pick received, I’d say things have worked out fairly well for the Twins. Minnesota passed over USC super-star Mark Prior, who many viewed as the best prospect available. The Twins instead took home-town boy Joe Mauer because they feared that Prior wouldn’t sign with them. In hind-sight, this was obviously a smart decision on Minnesota’s part because of the dominance of Mauer and the injury trouble of Prior, but I think it’s safe to assume that decision was made based on signability issues, not because they thought Mauer would be the better pick or because they foresaw any mechanical problems in Prior.
Prior actually had an incredible few years in the major leagues with the Cubs. He finished seventh in Rookie-of-the-Year voting in 2002, and third in Cy Young voting the next year. Even after several seasons plagued with injury, Prior has a career 3.51 ERA while he averaged a very impressive 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. If he would have avoided any health problems, there is little doubt that Prior would have been one of the best pitchers in the league.
But picking Mauer was obviously the right decision, regardless of the Twins’ motivation at the time. After just six seasons, Mauer is certainly in thick of the “Best Catcher” discussion. Having won an unprecedented three batting titles, Mauer was awarded with his first (and hopefully not last) MVP Award following the 2009 season, where he hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs in just 138 games.
3rd Round (77th overall) – Jose Morales, SS
Drafted as a shortstop, Morales was eventually moved behind the plate. The young switch-hitter has never displayed much power, but has managed to put up excellent on-base-percentages during his last few years in the minor leagues. He has repeated Triple-A for a few years, but this is more a result of his path to the Twins being blocked (see: Mauer, Joe) than his inability to hit.
Morales made his major-league debut in 2007, when both Mauer and Mike Redmond were dealing with injuries. Morales went 3-for-3 in the game, but injured himself in the fifth inning while running the bases, which put an abrupt end to his season.
This year, Morales was slated to be Mauer’s backup, but he required wrist surgery last month and will be out until mid-March.
13th Round (377th overall) – Kevin Cameron, RHP
Cameron was drafted by the Twins out of the Georgia Institute of Technology. While with the Twins, Cameron worked his way through the system as a relief pitcher while posting great ERAs and a respectable strikeout-per-nine ratio. He played the 2006 season with the Rochester Red Wings, but before he was promoted the Padres snagged him as a Rule V pick.
Since then, Cameron, 30, has enjoyed some success in the major leagues with the Padres, and Oakland Athletics. On January 11th, Cameron signed a minor-league contract with the San Francisco Giants.
29th Round (857th overall) – Nick Blackburn, RHP
After watching Blackburn for three years, it’s hard to believe that other teams collectively found over 850 players who they thought would have more successful careers than this right-handed pitcher out of Seminole State University. Blackburn just finished his second full major-league season in 2009, posting a 4.03 ERA while making a reputation for himself with incredible control of his pitches.
Despite having college experience, Blackburn slowly progressed through the Twins’ minor-league system. He never put up flashy strikeout totals, but he consistently managed to get opposing batters out. He will probably never be a star, but Blackburn is very capable of filling the middle of any major-league rotation.
no commentsLast year, Seth Stohs released his first Prospect Handbook. This year, he's done it again!
The Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook is at the publisher. Now, it will still be two or three weeks before it will be available, but starting today, you can pre-order your copy(ies) of the book. The first 75 books pre-ordered will be signed by yours truly. You can see the book’s cover below. If you click on it (or Click here), you will be taken to a PayPal page where you can pre-order copies. The book will sell for $13.95, but if you pre-order in January (through Sunday), you can get your copy for the same price as last year’s book, $12.95.
Last year’s book had 81 pages. The 2010 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook has 123 pages. And this year… We’ve got some pictures! There are stories on:
· Foreword by Kelly Thesier
· Just over 150 Twins minor league profiles
o With more in-depth statistics and splits
o Scouting reports from several people in, around and outside the Twins organization
· Top 5 Prospects from the Twins DSL Team
· Twins as Players in the International Markets
· Twins in the AFL
· Interview with Jeff Manship: Big Leaguer
· Danny Valencia: On the Cusp
· 2009 Draft and Derek McCallum Q&A
· SethSpeaks Top 30 Twins Prospect lists, 2006-2010
· Top 10 Twins prospect lists from several minor league experts and some of your favorite Twins bloggers.
Of course, if you have any questions, I welcome them. Please This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
Analysis later. For now, bask in the glory that is this lineup:
1. Denard Span (CF)
2. Orlando Hudson (2B)
3. Joe Mauer (C)
4. Justin Morneau (1B)
5. Jason Kubel (DH)
6. Michael Cuddyer (RF)
7. J.J. Hardy (SS)
8. Delmon Young (LF)
9. Nick Punto (3B)
I'd like to think that this lineup could manage to defeat the Yankees at least once next year.
no commentsOriginally published on TwinsMVB.com.
Although the season is just around the corner, there is still plenty of time to start a mini-series, isn't there? As we follow the latest (and most likely inaccurate) Joe Mauer rumors, here is a review of the first round of the 2000 draft, along with a few other notable picks.
Click "Read More" to Continue
no commentsFor the most part, owners of MLB teams are very wealthy individuals. Quite a few owners, in fact, possess hundreds of millions of dollars in addition to what they have invested in the team. They could buy up an entire roster of free agents, if they wanted. Because of this wealth, millions of fans become frustrated when a free agent they feel could have helped the club signs with another team. For just a few million dollars, some fans reason, the owner could have improved his team.
Simply improving a team, though, isn’t the only objective for an owner. Baseball is a business, where fortunes are both won and lost. Successful owners make money through their team and re-invest that money to further improve the team.
An owner’s purpose is not to simply win games. If a free agent can bring a team three additional wins, but cost more money than he brings in, very few owners would make the signing.
Based on data provided by the Cleveland Indians of the late 1990s, Nate Silver found in “Baseball Between the Numbers” that one additional win is worth about $1,196,000. This means that a free agent who is expected to increase your teams’ win total by three should be paid just over $3.5 million. This obviously isn’t the case. On the free agent market, teams have paid anywhere between $4 and $5 million per win because of limited supply, pressure brought about by the start of the season, and millions of fans screaming for a move.
Clearly, unless a team has bottomless pockets, the only fiscally reasonable way to build a team is internally. After reaching the major leagues, most players are under team control for six years before they become a free agent. Because of this, very few free agents are under the age of 28, and almost all are being paid based on past performances, not future potential.
Now, it’s important to realize that the $1.196 million figure I presented above is an average. It will not be the same for all teams. For example, a team on the brink of the playoffs would value a talented free agent much higher than a team that is expected to lose 100 games.
For this reason, accurately evaluating a team is the most important aspect of an owner’s job description. If an owner estimates that his team is capable of winning 85 games next season, he will probably pay more than most other teams on a free agent that could provide him with two or three additional wins. The increase in playoff probability alone would make the extra money spent moot.
Conversely, a team that is expected to win just 65 games will need a lot of help in order to have a chance at postseason play. They wouldn’t want to spend any more than market value for a free agent. If an owner either overestimates or underestimates his teams’ ability, though, he or she could be on the hook for millions of “wasted” dollars.
As a fan, we should remember this before cursing Bill Smith and the team’s ownership for sitting on their hands. If you were put in their position, there’s a good chance you’d be doing the same thing.
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Whether you love him or hate him, Nick Punto can draw both the best and worst out of people.
A lot of Twins fans think Punto shouldn't be in the major leagues; some say he is extremely under-valued. The opinions on this utility infielder fall not into just these two buckets, however, but dozens.
How do you view Punto? Where should he be playing? Why does manager Ron Gardenhire insist on inserting him into the lineup day after day?
Answer these questions and more on Feb. 12, Nick Punto Day! On this date, feel free to let loose your varying opinions on Punto, whether via your own blog, through either an email to me, or as a comment on any one of the dozens of Twins blogs on the interwebs.
So, on Feb. 12, share your thoughts on one of the most controversial subjects in the Minnesota clubhouse: Nick Punto!
no commentsIf you haven't already heard, Francisco Liriano appears to be back to his old self.
After putting up a 0.80 ERA in just under 50 innings of work in the Domincan Winter League, Liriano has impressed scouts to no end. He struck out over eleven batters per nine innings, while walking a total of five. You would be hard-pressed to find a scout that doesn't believe Liriano is a prime candidate for a breakout season in 2010.
Although I don't claim to be anything close to an expert, I compiled three pitches from Liriano from throughout his short career. The first one is from July 4 of 2009, against the Detroit Tigers. The second one is a bullpen pitch from Spring Training in 2008, and the third one is from last night, in the final game of the Dominican Winter League.
(Video courtesy of espn360.com, twinsbaseball.com, and an amateur clip picked up off YouTube)
(As you can tell by the video, this is an amateur attempt in every sense of the word. I simply captured these three clips, slowed them down a little, and uploaded them via the ever-helpful Photobucket. The frame counts I reference later were counted by slowing the videos down much more, but those versions weren't uploaded. Also, this is a .wmv format. The "real" scouts combine dozens of stills into a .gif. The "analysis" that follows is very much from an untrained eye, and should obviously be taken with a grain of salt. If you have some expertise to add, please leave it in the comments or shoot me an email!)
By slowing down the most recent video further, I counted a total of 26 frames from the balance point -- right before the knee begins to fall -- to the release of the ball. This was the same in the July 4, 2009 game. According to the Baseball Think Factory, Liriano boasted an incredibly quick 22-frame delivery in 2006, when he was obviously at his best. From what I've learned, a faster delivery is better because of the increased momentum a pitcher can utilize as he releases the ball.
Other than this tempo discrepancy, most of Liriano's delivery remains the same (again, according to my very untrained eye). The number of frames from when Liriano lifts his left arm to the release of the ball has remained consistent (11 or 12 frames), his elbow leads his arm and is seen at a horizontal angle, his knees bend and his rump moves to the right ("sitting down," as some scouts call it), and his right arm has remained firm throughout the years.
Liriano lives and dies by his slider. In 2006, he was pitching quick and was throwing his slider as fast as he could, which gave him a slider 23 runs above average. After his injury that year, though, the Twins tried to slow him down and extend his delivery to better protect against injury risk. As a result of this, Liriano's slider was not as dominant as before (single-digit value), and his confidence took a free-fall.
This is baseball ethics at their finest. Should a pitching coach allow his pitcher to throw an extremely effective pitch that puts him at an injury risk (which could be relatively insignificant for Liriano after his surgery), or should he protect his pitcher, no matter the cost? In Liriano's case, not being allowed to throw the way he did in 2006 could spell an end to his career -- in Minnesota, at least.
Liriano has one of the highest potentials of any pitcher currently on the 40-man roster. Having his future decided by whether or not pitching coach Rick Anderson and manager Ron Gardenhire allow him to throw hard is disconcerting, to say the least.
But watching him throw his slider without holding back during the Dominican Winter League was extremely enjoyable. If he doesn't succeed with the Twins, I wish him the best of luck with another organization.
What do you think? Will the Twins allow Liriano to throw the way he did in 2006, or will they slow him down again in 2010? What is your statistical projection for Liriano in 2010? Be sure to let us know in the comment section!
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