Twins Target - A Minnesota Twins blog
Historically, the NL West has been an extremely competitive division. Although there was a 25-game difference between the first- and late-place teams in the NL West this past season, each team in the division has had some degree of success in the past.
While the Los Angeles Dodgers have enjoyed the greatest amount of success in the NL West this past decade, the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are right behind them. The San Diego Padres have won two division titles since 2000, the same total as the Giants. Both the Dodgers and D-Backs have three crowns, while the closest the Colorado Rockies have come is 2nd place.
Here is how I see the NL West playing out in 2010:
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The Twins’ scouting department had a down year in 2003, drafting just three players who eventually reached the Big Leagues. Of those three, just Scott Baker is putting together a solid career. Here are the more notable picks in the 2003 draft.
1st Round (21st overall) – Matthew Moses, 3B
Never known as an elite defensive player, the Twins knew that Moses’ bat would carry him to the major leagues, where he would hopefully take over at third base. Minnesota hadn’t enjoyed a consistent third baseman since Corey Koskie left, and they felt that Moses could eventually compete for the job. Outside of his bat, Moses was a very average player.
He wasn’t the best defensively, was a poor base-runner, and didn’t have the strongest arm. In his first 18 games in the Gulf Coast League, though, Moses managed to hit .385/.417/.492. A physical in 2003 revealed that Moses had a small hole in his heart that a 20-minute operation fixed.
Whether or not this had anything to do with his decline can’t be known for sure, but in 2004 Moses hit .223/.304/.366 in Quad Cities (Low A). In half a season in Fort Myers in 2005 Moses hit .306/.376/.453, but as soon as he was promoted to New Britain he fell apart again.
Moses spent the entire 2006 season with the Rock Cats, where he hit .249/.303/.386. He bounced between New Britain and Rochester in 2007, but returned to the Rock Cats in 2008. Last year was again spent with the Rock Cats, where Moses hit .224/.274/.353. Sadly, Moses has been awarded the “bust” label, and there is little hope that he will ever develop into what the Twins envisioned.
2nd Round (58th overall) – Scott Baker, RHP
The one saving grace of the 2003 draft, Baker flew through the minor leagues. Just over a year after he was drafted, in 2004, Baker was mowing down batters in Triple-A Rochester. In 2005 he reached the Twins and posted a 3.35 ERA in just over 50 innings. From that point forward, Baker has enjoyed a very successful major-league career.
This year, Baker is considered Minnesota’s ace, though he would be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher most other places. Over the course of his career, Baker has amassed an ERA of 4.27 in 653 innings and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
4th Round (118th overall) – David Shinskie, RHP
Shinskie was selected out of Mt. Carmel High School in the fourth round in 2003, despite having received football scholarship offers from BSC schools. He stumbled around the minor leagues for about six years before retiring his glove and attempting to re-start his football career last year.
At 25-years old, Shinskie received a scholarship from Boston College and an offer to compete for their quarterback position. Shinksie was a four-year starter at quarterback at Mr. Carmel High School, and he won two state championships. In 2009, Shinskie threw for 2,049 yards and 15 touchdowns as he led the Eagles to an 8-4 record. They lost to USC in the Emerald Bowl.
14th Round (418th overall) – Levale Speigner, RHP
This pick is probably only notable because after Washington stole Speigner from us in the 2006 Rule V draft he went on to shut us down in 2007. Against Johan Santana on June 9, 2007, Speigner went six innings giving up just one run on two hits. He compiled a season ERA of 8.78, but he dominated the team he was drafted by.
(Note – as the 2004 draft involves several players who are still progressing through the Minnesota organization, I will stop my draft evaluation series here. But be sure to stick around here throughout the season for all the Twins' content you can handle!)
no commentsHistorically, the National League Central has been filled with some of the best and worst teams in baseball.
The St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros have been the two most consistent teams in the division this past decade, with the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers always in the mix. The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates have had very little success, though the Reds have managed two 3rd-place finishes this decade.
The past few years, though, the division title has been fought over by the Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers, with St. Louis managing six titles in the past ten years, with three others going to the Cubs, and one to the Astros. This year, Houston is a mess, but the Brewers and Cubs appear ready for a fight.
Here's how I see the NL Central playing out in 2010.
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no commentsNot too many years ago, the National League East was one of the more competitive leagues in baseball. For the past decade, the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets have battled for the top position, with the Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals (also known as the Montreal Expos before 2005) picking up the scraps.
Philadelphia has been incredibly successful in the NL East since 2001, and have been in the thick of things just about every year. The Braves dominated the early Aughties, with division crowns from 2000-2005. New York has had ups and downs this decade, with the future looking mostly sour. Florida has remained competitive for most of the decade, but hasn't been able to claim a division title. The Expos/Nationals have been mostly comatose these last ten years.
The past three NL East titles have been awarded to the Phillies, who won the World Series in 2008 and still boast a very strong team. Atlanta has suffered ever since the ill-advised Mark Teixeira trade that sent Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and two others to the Texas Rangers. Florida and Washington are on the rise, while the Mets seem destined once again to a sub-.500 season plagued with injuries. Here is how I see the 2010 season playing out in the NL East.
Click here to see how the NL East will play out in 2010!
Unlike many small-market teams, the Minnesota Twins aren’t afraid to draft high school players early. Despite the uncertainty and signability risk high schoolers present, Mike Radcliff and his elite scouting team drafted prep stars with four of their first five picks in the 2002 Amateur Draft.
The first round pick has panned out very nicely for the Twins, while the last high school player selected (Adam Lind) didn’t sign. (The other two prep picks – Mark Sauls and Alex Merrick – didn’t exactly pan out.) All in all, though, the Twins found several top talents in the 2002 MLB Draft.
Here is a breakdown of some of the notable picks.
1st Round (20th overall) – Denard Span, OF
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Did the Twins just have execute a "perfect" offseason?
JJ Hardy. Carl Pavano. Clay Condrey. Jim Thome. Orlando Hudson. (Joe Mauer?) Talk about a study in a wise allocation of resources.
After the 2009 regular season, the Twins had several clear and crucial needs, most notably their nearly empty infield. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau were the only two guaranteed starters, while Nick Punto’s versatility would allow him to start at any one of the 2B/SS/3B holes in the Minnesota infield.
Needing to fill two of 2B/SS/3B, the Twins immediately got into action, trading away center fielder Carlos Gomez for shortstop JJ Hardy shortly after the conclusion of the World Series. While a starting staff extremely prone to the fly ball will miss Gomez’s defense, the young outfielder likely wouldn’t have received any regular playing time. Hardy played miserably last year, but the Twins feel confident that they will be able to help him return to his previous status.
The Twins also awarded a contract to veteran starting pitcher Carl Pavano, who posted a 4.00 FIP last season in just under 200 innings. His durability will be crucial for the Twins, as will -- though it pains a stats geek like myself to say -- his “veteran presence.” Clay Condrey was the next free agent brought aboard by the Twins. The bullpen wasn't a primary area of concern, but Condrey will fill a useful (albeit minimal) role in the 2010 bullpen. Condrey is a sinker-ball pitcher who will be very welcome in Minnesota.
Jim Thome was then signed to a very cheap one-year deal. He won't play every day, but the future Hall-of-Famer doesn't seem to have a problem with that. Thome gives the Twins some non-Cuddyer depth at first base, and is also available to slide into the full-time designated hitter position should Jason Kubel need to replace an injured outfielder for an extended period of time. Most importantly, though, Thome will provide the Twins with a legitimate power threat off the bench, something they have been bereft of for quite some time.
Minnesota then shocked their fan-base by signing another part of the 2B/SS/3B hole in Orlando Hudson. Excluding the (hopefully) inevitable Joe Mauer extension, this move was perhaps the most significant of the entire offseason for the Twins. Not only does Hudson provide the Twins with an above-average option at second base, but the switch-hitting 32-year old gives the Twins a legitimate No. 2 hitter to bat before Mauer, and breaks up the long streak of left-handed batters in the lineup.
A significant increase in revenue was received as a result of the opening of Target Field, and most of that was pumped right back into the team. The Twins are tip-toeing the line between small- and large-market, with their payroll inching closer to the $100 million mark. They spent a lot of money this offseason, and several holes were filled.
Obviously, some center-field depth would be nice to have, as would an ace to head up the rotation, though neither of these were priorities. Assuming the Twins spent as much money as they had available, did they spread their resources wisely?
What would you have done differently? Who would you have targeted before Orlando Hudson or Carl Pavano? Did the Twins have a "successful" offseason in your eyes? Be sure to leave you thoughts in the comment section below!
no commentsThis is where the fun of Nick Punto Day will really be held.
As a way to keep track of the dozens of blog entries regarding our favorite 5'9'', 170 lb., scrappy infielder, I ask that all who have access to Twitter post the link to their blogs along with the #NickPuntoDay hashtag. (If you don't have a Twitter account and have no interest in creating one, feel free to email me your story and I'll link to it below.)
Again, please Tweet the links to your stories with "#NickPuntoDay" included somewhere in the tweet. By using those magic words, your tweet will find its way to the box I have created below.
The purpose of this Nick Punto Day is to learn from and about other Twins' bloggers. Feel free to browse through the tweets below, and try to read them all!
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I know that many of you disagree, some vehemently. Here are three simple statements about Punto that need to be known, and that will perhaps change your opinion of the most controversial utility infielder in the state of Minnesota.
1.Nick Punto is an above average base runner.
I won’t use advanced statistics much during this piece, but EqBRR (Equivalent Base-Running Runs) is just too good to pass up. This stat combined not only stolen bases, but also ground, air, and hit advancements. EqBRR sums those totals and adjusts them so they can be read easily.
Punto’s EqBRR last season was 4.3, the 14th highest total in the league. Punto led the Twins last year in that category. Despite the taste left in your mouth after the base-running blunder against the Yankees last October, Punto is usually smart on the base paths.
2.Nick Punto is an excellent defender.
Although he is 32 years old, Punto remains a very solid defensive player at several key positions. Punto’s playing time last season was split between second base and shortstop, two of the four toughest defensive positions on the diamond. In 58 games at shortstop in 2009, Punto had a UZR/150 of 4.7. In 63 games at second last year, he posted a UZR/150 of 9.4
This total at shortstop is well below his career average, and far below his 2008 total. When viewing these defensive numbers, though, it is important to realize the small-sample size of just about every year. It’s ironic, but Punto’s versatility makes it difficult to examine his defensive statistics on a year-to-year basis.
Throughout his career, Punto has played an almost identical amount of time at second, shortstop, and third base. His UZR/150 at second is 3.9, while it is 18.1 at second and 19.9 at third.
Only average offensive production is required from a player of Punto’s defensive caliber.
3.Nick Punto is an above average No. 9 hitter.
Last season was a down year for Punto offensively, when he posted a line of .228/.337/.284, while the league-average No. 9 hitter hit .245/.305/.349. What should draw your attention is the on-base-percentage, the second number listed in the slash stats.
The most important offensive role of a No. 9 hitter is to not record an out. By getting on base, the No. 9 hitter can prolong a rally for another run through the batting order. Punto is extremely patient at the plate – he took the most pitches per plate appearance on the team, last year, in fact – and posted an OBP well above the league average for a No. 9 hitter.
No, Punto can’t hit and no, Punto can’t hit for power. But he can get on base, which is all a manager can ask of his No. 9 hitter.
Now, let me be clear about something: Ideally, Punto should be a utility infielder that comes off the bench. We lack the personnel to make that happen, though, so Punto will, and should, start just about every day until Danny Valencia is ready. If there were a quality third baseman on the team, Punto should be limited to a utility role.
Although he has zero power to speak of (12 career home runs to go with a .324 slugging percentage), Punto is a good option at third base and the 9th position in the batting order for the 2010 season.
Manager Ron Gardenhire may give him some favoritism, but we should be happy to have Little Nicky Punto. no comments
The 2001 MLB Draft could be labeled as a success, if for no other reason than bringing Joe Mauer to the Twin Cities. In 2001, the Twins focused on a thick crop of prep talent, as their first four picks were fresh out of high school. So far, it looks as if two of those first four picks are bound for successful major league careers. Let’s take a look at the Twins' notable selections in the 2001 Draft.
1st Round (1st overall) – Joe Mauer, C
Despite the criticism this pick received, I’d say things have worked out fairly well for the Twins. Minnesota passed over USC super-star Mark Prior, who many viewed as the best prospect available. The Twins instead took home-town boy Joe Mauer because they feared that Prior wouldn’t sign with them. In hind-sight, this was obviously a smart decision on Minnesota’s part because of the dominance of Mauer and the injury trouble of Prior, but I think it’s safe to assume that decision was made based on signability issues, not because they thought Mauer would be the better pick or because they foresaw any mechanical problems in Prior.
Prior actually had an incredible few years in the major leagues with the Cubs. He finished seventh in Rookie-of-the-Year voting in 2002, and third in Cy Young voting the next year. Even after several seasons plagued with injury, Prior has a career 3.51 ERA while he averaged a very impressive 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. If he would have avoided any health problems, there is little doubt that Prior would have been one of the best pitchers in the league.
But picking Mauer was obviously the right decision, regardless of the Twins’ motivation at the time. After just six seasons, Mauer is certainly in thick of the “Best Catcher” discussion. Having won an unprecedented three batting titles, Mauer was awarded with his first (and hopefully not last) MVP Award following the 2009 season, where he hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs in just 138 games.
3rd Round (77th overall) – Jose Morales, SS
Drafted as a shortstop, Morales was eventually moved behind the plate. The young switch-hitter has never displayed much power, but has managed to put up excellent on-base-percentages during his last few years in the minor leagues. He has repeated Triple-A for a few years, but this is more a result of his path to the Twins being blocked (see: Mauer, Joe) than his inability to hit.
Morales made his major-league debut in 2007, when both Mauer and Mike Redmond were dealing with injuries. Morales went 3-for-3 in the game, but injured himself in the fifth inning while running the bases, which put an abrupt end to his season.
This year, Morales was slated to be Mauer’s backup, but he required wrist surgery last month and will be out until mid-March.
13th Round (377th overall) – Kevin Cameron, RHP
Cameron was drafted by the Twins out of the Georgia Institute of Technology. While with the Twins, Cameron worked his way through the system as a relief pitcher while posting great ERAs and a respectable strikeout-per-nine ratio. He played the 2006 season with the Rochester Red Wings, but before he was promoted the Padres snagged him as a Rule V pick.
Since then, Cameron, 30, has enjoyed some success in the major leagues with the Padres, and Oakland Athletics. On January 11th, Cameron signed a minor-league contract with the San Francisco Giants.
29th Round (857th overall) – Nick Blackburn, RHP
After watching Blackburn for three years, it’s hard to believe that other teams collectively found over 850 players who they thought would have more successful careers than this right-handed pitcher out of Seminole State University. Blackburn just finished his second full major-league season in 2009, posting a 4.03 ERA while making a reputation for himself with incredible control of his pitches.
Despite having college experience, Blackburn slowly progressed through the Twins’ minor-league system. He never put up flashy strikeout totals, but he consistently managed to get opposing batters out. He will probably never be a star, but Blackburn is very capable of filling the middle of any major-league rotation.
no commentsLast year, Seth Stohs released his first Prospect Handbook. This year, he's done it again!
The Minnesota Twins 2010 Prospect Handbook is at the publisher. Now, it will still be two or three weeks before it will be available, but starting today, you can pre-order your copy(ies) of the book. The first 75 books pre-ordered will be signed by yours truly. You can see the book’s cover below. If you click on it (or Click here), you will be taken to a PayPal page where you can pre-order copies. The book will sell for $13.95, but if you pre-order in January (through Sunday), you can get your copy for the same price as last year’s book, $12.95.
Last year’s book had 81 pages. The 2010 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook has 123 pages. And this year… We’ve got some pictures! There are stories on:
· Foreword by Kelly Thesier
· Just over 150 Twins minor league profiles
o With more in-depth statistics and splits
o Scouting reports from several people in, around and outside the Twins organization
· Top 5 Prospects from the Twins DSL Team
· Twins as Players in the International Markets
· Twins in the AFL
· Interview with Jeff Manship: Big Leaguer
· Danny Valencia: On the Cusp
· 2009 Draft and Derek McCallum Q&A
· SethSpeaks Top 30 Twins Prospect lists, 2006-2010
· Top 10 Twins prospect lists from several minor league experts and some of your favorite Twins bloggers.
Of course, if you have any questions, I welcome them. Please This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .
