| 04 April 2011
Twins fans are nothing if not loyal.
Some may be negative or cynical, but all Twins fans look forward to each spring, regardless how many lost seasons they've endured. Generating excitement for the season is the one goal of the baseball offseason, and it's always carried out to perfection. Especially in Minnesota.
Last year, the Twins capitalized on the bottled-up anticipation, opening their season with a 5-2 record and getting an early jump on their competition. It was a perfect way to lead up to Target Field's first game, and showed that the offense was just as fired up as the fans were. Minnesota didn't hit at the same level they did for the rest of the season, but enjoyed a significantly better runs scored-to-allowed ratio.
Opening weeks may not shed much light on the outcome of the season to follow -- the World Series-winning Twins of '91 went 2-5 in their first seven games -- but it's an excellent opportunity for the team to springboard into the daily grind of the regular season. Though statistically insignificant, those first seven games occur at a time when raw emotion is rampant; success or failure will dictate the prevailing mood of the season to come.
In 2011, the Twins aren't exactly spreading the joys of optimism.
Four games have been played, and Minneosta sits at the bottom of the American League Central with a 1-3 record and a horrifying 11-26 runs scored-to-allowed ratio. Just 19 hits have been recorded by Twins hitters, roughly half the pace of the 2010 team. Patience hasn't been a virtue these last four days, either, as the 3-to-1 strikeout/walk ratio would make even Mark Reynolds blush.
In fact, these last four games have given the Twins a legitimate chance to claim the worst opening week performance in the last 20 years. Here is a public Google document with the relevent data. As the table shows, the Twins' runs scored-to-allow ratio in the first seven games has been better than the following season just six times over the last two decades. They have hit more frequently just eight times. Clealry, Minnesota teams are prone to slow starts.
Studying seven-game samples is an excellent way to learn nothing, however, and these results hardly correlate to a a season's outcome. Even so, it's an interesting trend to note, and may explain the rationale of that pessimistic Twins fan who lives two doors down.
The Twins rarely make good first impressions, but have consistently found ways to overcome the early defecits to advance to the top of their division. The poor performance this week may not be inspiring, but it holds little predictive value.
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