| 31 October 2010
By Matt McCabe
Allow myself to introduce...myself.
Ah, Halloween: the unique Holiday celebration with a very convoluted and bastardized history (http://www.loc.gov/folklife/halloween.html). Halloween is a wary time for me. Call it my own personal superstition. With all the madness going down I feel like something or someone will get me in trouble. So I stay in-doors.
Fortunately, this year's Halloween falls on a Sunday. The day will be full of NFL action followed by a night of the World Series-and more football because, let's face it, who can sit through an entire baseball game anymore, especially when your favorite team isn't involved?
And with this blog entry, Halloween assumes a new kind of identity for me. (Allow me one last self-indulgence before we get to the good stuff.)
Ever since I could read I was drawn to the Star Tribune, first for the funnies but not long after for the sports pages. At first it was all about checking the leader boards for every Minnesota kid's favorite player: Kirby Puckett. Eventually I'd read Twins game recaps and finally I graduated to the sophisticated rants and ramblings of Sid Hartman and Patrick Reusee among others-though I didn't "know" who those writers were in the way I kind of do now. Looking back it seemed a matter of fate that I would one day follow in their footsteps to become a sports writer myself. Admittedly, the pipe dream of writing for the Star Tribune is most likely just that. Sid's only been doing this for 60 years, Reusse for like 40 so it's obviously tough to get your foot in the door when the big guns never leave. I am, however, writing about high school sports and actually making money doing it. So I got that going for me.
Here's my point: this blog post is quite meaningful for me. It is the first time I'll have written freely about my first and favorite sports team, the Minnesota Twins. And tying this momentous personal triumph with the day's theme, it's time for me to finally exorcise the demons of Halloween's past by churning out my first ever entry on TwinsTarget.com and thereby assigning new meaning to this holiday (much in the same way Christians altered the originally pagan celebration). So, without further ado, here is a breakdown of the Twins free agents this offseason and one man's opinion of who should go ("tricks") and who should stay ("treats"). Enjoy.
The Twins ranked 13th in 2010 with a payroll of just over $90 million (that salary went up with trades). In 2010, team salaries didn't really start getting obscene until the #6 team, Detroit at $122 million. The Red Sox were 2nd at $161 million and the Yankees of course were #1 at $207 million. *All figures based on start of the season.
Many of the Twins top players are in line for raises in 2011, led by Joe Mauer's $10.5 million increase. Also getting bumps are Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, Nick Blackburn, and Scott Baker. Increases to contracts add up to $19.35 million; the Twins have over $70 million invested in eight players next year. So, decisions need to be made and the organization started the process off wisely on Friday.
Picking up Jason Kubel's $5.25 million option was a good deal for the Twins. Not picking up Nick Punto's $5 million was also smart. Although Kubel's constipation at the postseason plate is well-documented, the guy is a regular season boon, capable of hitting for average, homeruns, and RBI's. As for Punto, well what can you say? The guy Twins fans love to hate finally demonstrated enough stupidity on the base paths, weakness at the plate, and overall fragility to make Gardy and the front office come to their senses. He will have a job next year because he fields better than any player at multiple positions, but I don't think it will be for the Twins.
Final verdict: Kubel's a treat, Punto is a trick(ster).
Other than Kubel and Punto, the Twins have 10 free agents. Two besides Kubel are Type A's which means they're considered among the top 20% of players in baseball: Carl Pavano and Matt Guerrier. Five Twins are Type B's which means they're considered among the next top 20% in baseball: Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, Orlando Hudson, Jon Rauch, and Jim Thome. Three Twins are unclassified free agents which means they are in the bottom 60% of players: J.J. Hardy, Randy Flores, and Ron Mahay.
Let's begin with the bullpen.
I'm sure the Twins will let veteran relief men Fuentes ($9 million last year), Mahay ($4), and Flores ($650,000) walk unless they agree to some bare minimum deals. All are guys you use to shore up the bullpen's holes and none of the three did great at that last year so we'll all call them tricks for 2011.
That leaves the enigmatic trio of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jon Rauch. LaVelle E. Neil III said on KFAN radio Friday that the Twins strategy may be to offer the same deal to each of the three players-that is, they'd offer something in the range of 2 years, 6-8 million first to Guerrier, if he turned it down, they'd offer it to Crain, if Crain turned it down, it's on to Rauch. Bottom line, all three guys alone are expendable but the Twins will likely need two out of the three to maintain a respectable bullpen. Twins fans can expect two of the three to set up Matt Capps until (a big if) Joe Nathan is back and healthy.
Final verdict: even though they both drive me crazy at different times over the years, I'd like to see the Twins keep treats Crain and Guerrier. The trick man of this group would then be Rauch, appropriate because he seemed to use "smoke and mirrors" to get opposing batters out last year.
On to the infield which is as dicey and unknown as ever. Up for free agency are shortstop J.J. Hardy ($5.1 million in 2010) and 2nd baseman Orlando Hudson ($5 million in 2010). Of all the Twins' issues going into 2011 their up-the-middle defense may be the most glaring. Do the Twins have enough faith in Alexi Casilla to be the regular 2nd baseman? If it's up to Gardy, I'd say probably not. Yet, as Neil III reported on Friday, Hudson left the Twin Cities after our latest postseason sweep convinced he wouldn't be with the team next year. The shortstop position is even more problematic. The Twins are evidently high on Trevor Plouffe, for what reasons I don't know. Hardy showed once again in 2010 that he can't stay on the field. It also seems his supposed punch at the plate is still lost somewhere in Milwaukee. It simply would not make sense to resign Hardy unless it was a dirt-cheap deal, except that leaves Plouffe or (gasp) a resigned Punto as our only other options.
Final verdict: the whole lot of them are tricksters. This is a hung jury that needs to see more evidence (i.e. free agent options) before making a decision.
That leads us to two of the most important players for the Twins last season: Jim Thome and Carl Pavano. It's astounding looking back that we got Thome for the low low price of $1.5 million last year. He led the team in homeruns (25), slugging % (.627), and was 2nd in OPS (1.039 to Morneau's 1.055) in 276 at bats. Granted, Thome can't play the field, can't run, and needs to rest regularly. But the Twins certainly benefited from his leadership, his bulldog mentality, and his flair for the dramatics (Chicago walkoff anyone?). If he doesn't elect to retire, the Twins ought to pay him at least as much as Kubel since even at 41 he's every bit the player Kubel is. That means $5+. Sign that treat!
And then there was one. A Mr. Carl Pavano. Knowing the Twins, I think odds are that Pavano will not be returning as our #2 starter next season. Starting pitchers who give you 200 innings with an ERA at or below 4.00 get overpaid. Even when they're 34 years old like Pavano. Case in point: the Dodgers signed 34-year-old Ted Lilly to 3 years and $33 million two weeks ago. Here is a split between Lilly and Pavano
Lilly last season: 193.2 innings, 30 games, 166 k's, 10-12 record, 3.62 ERA; career: 113-96 record, 4.18 ERA, 1474 K's.
Pavano last season: 221 innings, 32 games, 117 k's, 17-11 record, 3.75 ERA; career: 97-89 record, 4.34 ERA, 956 K's.
Pretty similar aren't they?
Unfortunately working against the Twins favor is the fact that beyond Cliff Lee, Pavano may be the best starting pitcher free agent available. Someone overpays for him and it isn't going to be Minnesota.
Final verdict: you were a treat to watch Pavano, but you're going to trick someone.
That's it for now, Twins fans. Thanks for checking out my first blog effort. I'll do better the next time. I'll leave you with a couple suggestions from the world of popular culture to hold you over until my next post.
- Book suggestion of the week: You are not a Gadget, A Manifesto by Jaron Lanier. Lanier, one of Time magazine's 100 most Influentional People of 2010, offers a cautionary look at the way the web and computers transform our lives for better and for worse. Just started this non-fiction book but already its wisdom has been enlightening and entertaining.
- Book suggestion of the week from a friend: Especially appropriate for Halloween: my pal poopy_magoo suggests the fiction work Satan Burger by Carlton Mellick III. To try to summarize would be a ridiculous waste of space-even more than I've already wasted. Suffice it to say, Mellick is called this generation's Vonnegut which is a pretty damn cool title to claim.
- Movie I've seen lately: With all the potentially great movies in theaters now (Social Network, Hereafter, Secretariat) I opted for Jackass 3D and boy was I satisfied. You know what you're getting with the Jackass franchise so you really don't need my suggestion but let me just say it was crazy fun.
- TV special you should've watched: Jon Stewart's and Stephen Colbert's Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. Great showmanship, great music, great message, no politics. Just an outstanding three hours of television.
- TV special you must purchase on DVD: "Once Brothers" This was a 30-30 special on ESPN which aired a few weeks ago that tells the story of Vlade Divac, Drazen Petrovic, fragmentation in Yugoslavia, and the tragedy of circumstance. I dare you not to cry. Available on DVD at your fine online stores.
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