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I posted my thoughts over at Around the Horn Baseball on why the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central in 2010. My debate partner was Matt Wallace, who writes for Take75North, who feels the Detroit Tigers will win the division this year. Be sure to check out the full debate, but here's my stance.
The MINNESOTA TWINS will win the American League Central
By Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target:
The AL Central has historically been one of the more weak, albeit competitive, divisions in baseball. The division winner has averaged just 93 wins per season, and the last 100-game winner to come out of the AL Central was the Cleveland Indians, back in 1995.
In 2009, the AL Central outpaced their NL Central counterparts by scoring an average of 76.4 wins per team. The NL Central averaged 76, which was the lowest mark in baseball. The AL West averaged 86 wins per team, which led baseball.
Regardless of the strength of its inhabitants, though, the AL Central will send no fewer than one team to the postseason in 2010. Judging from past seasons, this six-month long struggle will be a dogfight to the end. Here are five reasons why the Minnesota Twins will win the AL Central:
Click here to read five (or six!) reasons why the Twins will win the AL Central.
Much More Offensive Firepower Than Rest of Division
As the old saying goes, "Hitting wins games, but pitching and defense wins championships." The Minnesota Twins, with a loaded offense and spotty pitching staff will attempt to refute that claim in 2010.
There is no doubting that the Twins will be able to score plenty of runs. No fewer than five players in the lineup are capable of hitting 30 home runs: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, JJ Hardy, and conceivably Delmon Young.
The first two batters in Minnesota's lineup - Denard Span and Orlando Hudson -- are offensive threats in their own right. Nick Punto, who will likely bat ninth, is the only batter in the order who won't make opposing pitchers sweat.
Up and down the order, there aren't too many batters who will be rally-killers. Clearly, if the Twins win the AL Central, the offense will be largely responsible.
A Solid Defense, Especially in the Infield
Minnesota does not have the best outfield defense by any stretch of the imagination, but last year's horrid UZR totals are a bit misleading.* Due to the bright lights of the Metrodome and the "baggy" in right field, both Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer appeared to be much worse defenders than they actually were.
(* - For those not aware, UZR, or "Ultimate Zone Rating," is a defensive stat that people prefer to use over the traditional fielding percentage. UZR eliminates the subjectivity of "errors" and fielding percentage, while rating players based on how much of the field they cover, and how well they cover the field relative to other players of that position. For more information on UZR, check out this primer.)
Young has lost 29 pounds and appears to be fleet of foot again. Cuddyer won't be forced to deal with the "baggy" in right field any longer, so his UZR won't take any unnecessary hit. Denard Span wasn't the best in center field last year, but that could largely be due to the fact that he was shuffled around so much. He has been named the opening day center fielder, and he should settle in nicely.
As a whole, the Twins' outfield will provide slightly below-average defense. With a starting rotation that consists primarily of fly-ball pitchers, this is certainly an area of concern.
The infield defense, however, will be among the best in the league. Nick Blackburn is one of the few ground-ball pitchers in the Twins' rotation, and he will greatly benefit from the very strong infield defense this year. With Nick Punto at third, JJ Hardy at shortstop, Orlando Hudson at second, Justin Morneau at first, and Joe Mauer behind the plate, the Twins' infield looks air-tight.
At Least Two Pitchers Should See Drastic Improvements From Last Year
Both Carl Pavano and Kevin Slowey had abnormally high Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) in 2009 - which simply means that hitters were receiving an abnormally high amount of "lucky breaks" -- which led to less-than-stellar ERAs and WHIPs. While the league average is around .300, Pavano had a BABIP of .344 in 2009, while Slowey had hitters post a BABIP of .352.
While not his ideal role, Slowey will be given the No. 2 spot in the starting rotation in 2010. Carl Pavano will be the primary innings-eater of the bunch, stuck somewhere in the middle of the rotation. If either can take a step forward in 2010, the Twins stand a much better chance of pulling ahead of their AL Central rivals. As the statistics will tell you, this step forward appears to be imminent.
There Are Not Many Rookies Needing Transition Time
Outside of the eventual promotion of Danny Valencia, the Twins will not be relying on any rookies to patch any holes in the roster. Manning almost every position on the squad is a player with several years' of experience. While the youthful spirit could be missed, the veteran savvy will help the team win one- or two-run games.
As a general rule of thumb, recently-promoted rookies require some time to adapt to the new environment. Depending on the player, this could take anywhere from a few months to a few years. For the 2010 Twins, this won't be an issue, and the entire team should be prepared for major-league caliber opponents on April 5 and very few hiccups are expected.
Plenty of Trade Chips for a Mid-Season Acquisition
The Twins have a surplus of minor league talent in their organization. The most prominent name that will be dangled about near the July 31 Trade Deadline will be catcher Wilson Ramos. Possessing excellent ability with a bat in his hands along with great defensive skill, it is very likely that Ramos will find himself on another team's 40-man roster in 2010.
Assuming Joe Mauer is re-signed, Ramos will be almost entirely obsolete in the Twins' system. Playing last year with the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats, Ramos should finish 2010 in Triple-A but could be a candidate for a September promotion. For a team in the playoff hunt in need of a late-inning bat off the bench, Ramos could provide significant value as soon as this year.
When paired with one of the several elite Minnesota outfield prospects (Ben Revere, Aaron Hicks, Angel Morales, and Joe Benson come to mind), Ramos could net the Twins a premier starting pitcher for a two-month rental. If Minnesota is within spitting distance of the AL Central lead near the Trading Deadline, a trade for Brandon Webb or Cliff Lee could provide the difference.
Bonus: The Loss of Joe Nathan Won't Hurt Too Bad
Twins fans were given a gut punch on Tuesday of this week when they received the news that Joe Nathan would most likely be out for the season. Probably requiring Tommy John surgery as a 35-year old, Nathan's career could very well be over.
Six saves away from the franchise record, this is a devastating blow for one of the most consistent relievers in modern baseball history. I feel worse for him than I do for the situation the Twins have been put in.
Clearly, losing Nathan for the entire season is not ideal. The sense of security you receive when Nathan steps to the mound in the ninth inning of a close game is something that will be deeply missed. Thanks to the rather deep Minnesota bullpen, though, Nathan's loss won't hurt the Twins too bad, and certainly doesn't make them any less of the AL Central favorite than they already were.
At his best, Nathan was responsible for around two of Minnesota's wins per season. The several adequate relievers the Twins have in their bullpen are more than capable of making up for the four percent of total team innings that Nathan pitched in 2009. A combination of Jon Rauch, Pet Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain, and Jose Mijares will all take a small step forward in terms of responsibility and hope that their production follows.
By using a closer-by-committee approach, the Twins would be allowing the game situation to dictate who they decide to pitch in the 9th inning, which could work to the Twins' advantage in the AL Central race in 2010. - Andrew Kneeland, Twins Target
Again, be sure to check out the full debate at Around The Horn Baseball.
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