| 16 March 2010
The American League Central has never been a powerhouse on the national scene. Producing just one world champion since its inception, the AL Central has simply contributed the mandatory one team to the playoffs every year with very little success.
In the weak division, the Minnesota Twins have had the most success this past decade, though the White Sox claimed a World Championship in 2005. Because of the generally-small payrolls of the division, a combination of accurate scouting and consistent player development has paid off for the Twins, as they have brought home the division crown five times in the past ten years.
This year, there are two clear tiers of teams in the division. The Twins, Tigers, and White Sox will be competing for the first three slots, while the Indians and Royals will duke it out in the basement. While the Game 163s that have been required in the past two years indicate the division's intense competitiveness, the AL Central is very weak on the national scale.
Each team in the top tier have one of offense, starting pitching, relief pitching, but have failed to combine all three for quite some time. This year is no different.
Although I hate to sound pessimistic, the AL Central winner will most probably draw the toughest American League team in October and be knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. It's happened before, and it will likely happen again. It doesn't make the regular season any less thrilling, though.
Click here to find out how I see the AL Central playing out in 2010!
1. Minnesota Twins – (90-72)
Due to the opening of Target Field, the Minnesota Twins have much more money available to them for the 2010 season. This additional revenue has allowed Minnesota to patch up the infield while making a few other notable moves, as well.
JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson were the two most significant moves this offseason. Both provide great defense while offering significant offensive upside. On both sides of the ball the Twins will have one of the best infields in baseball. The outfield, though, could pose a problem.
Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span will provide plenty of offense, while Delmon Young is slated for a “breakout” season in 2010. With one of the most fly-ball prone starting rotations in the majors, though, outfield defense will certainly be an Achilles's heel.
The starting five of Baker/Slowey/Pavano/Blackburn/Liriano will be able to post mediocre ERAs, but at least one will need to greatly exceed expectations if the Twins hope to have a chance at winning a postseason series.
Although they have an excellent offense in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Twins will need to rely on more than their bats to get them the division crown. There are still plenty of holes on Minnesota's roster, and a World Series run isn't likely, but the Twins appear to be the favorites in the AL Central in 2010.
2. Detroit Tigers – (89-73)
After dealing away Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, the 2010 Detroit Tigers have an odd mixture of expensive veterans and inexperienced rookies. In any other division this season would be written off as a transition year, but in the AL Central, this Detroit roster will certainly be competitive.
Rookie Austin Jackson will be thrust atop the Tiger's batting order, and his defense will also be required in center field. Jackson will obviously be a crucial part of Detroit's season, and his performance, both offensively and defensively, will be crucial to the Tiger's success.
The majority of Detroit's lineup is not especially strong. Besides Johnny Damon, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, and perhaps Carlos Guillen, the Tigers won't be producing too many runs in 2010. Detroit's rotation, though, could dispel that disadvantage.
Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello are all excellent starting pitchers, and Detroit's bullpen should be solid, as well.
What the Tigers lack in offense they certainly make up for in their starting rotation. While several things would need to go right for Detroit to be able to win the AL Central in 2010, there is every reason to believe that they will be breathing down Minnesota's neck for much of the season.
3. Chicago White Sox – (89-73)
Although not as flashy or revered as other teams around the league, I have long been a fan of Kenny Williams and the White Sox' front office. The South Side of Chicago may not boast the same player development skills as the Twins, but their “get 'er done” attitude is something to be envious of.
This year, the White Sox have added the talents of Jake Peavy, Mark Teahen, and Juan Pierre to the roster through very efficient dealings. While Teahen and Pierre won't have much impact on a largely comatose offense, Peavy brings star-power to an extremely talented starting five.
Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, and Freddy Garcia form one of the best rotations in the league, and will be the main reason the White Sox win close to 90 games in 2010.
Once again, the White Sox will almost exclusively be a station-to-station club in 2010. What they have in home runs they lack in on-base percentage, which is a cause for concern. Chicago's offense will doubtless struggle through this upcoming season.
Unlike the Twins, the South Siders have an extremely strong rotation and will be backed with modest-at-best offensive production. In 2010, the White Sox will battle for the AL Central crown for much of the season, but will eventually finish third in the very close trio atop the division.
4. Cleveland Indians – (79-83)
If the Toronto Blue Jays were moved tot he AL Central for the 2010 season, I suspect they'd be at about the same level as the Cleveland Indians. Both teams are stuck in re-building mode, but in the AL Central, the Indians stand an outside chance of actually competing. In the AL East, Toronto does not.
After selling Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Mark DeRosa, Ryan Garko, and Ben Francisco last season, the Indians have plenty of holes on their roster. The first three players in Cleveland's batting order are outstanding (Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin Soo-Choo), but the latter six leave much to be desired.
The starting rotation is even more of a question-mark, with the current ace (Jake Westbrook) slated to make his first major-league start since mid-2008. After him, Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona should provide plenty of innings with serviceable ERAs. The bullpen – a problematic, er, disastrous area for the past several years – should provide some solid relief innings and hold down any leads Cleveland manages to bring in to the later innings.
With one of the best minor league systems in the game, the Indians should feel lucky that they are placed in the pedestrian AL Central, where they have the best shot at contention. A weak pitching rotation and an inept offense will thwart any serious plans, but the imbalanced schedule will give Cleveland a fair chance at a .500 record in 2010.
5. Kansas City Royals – (72-90)
When discussing bleak organizations, the Kansas City Royals are among the first mentioned. With just three legitimate players on their roster (Greinke, Butler, and Soria), and with no talent in the upper-minor leagues, the Royals are in a tough spot in 2010.
Offensively, Kansas City should once again struggle mightily. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon should be the primary contributors, with Scott Podsednik, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Jose Guillen trying their best to post negative VORPs.
The rotation could actually be decent in 2010. The Royals will be able to call upon Greinke every fifth day, which will dramatically increase their potential of winning 75 games. Behind the defending AL Cy Young will be Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Luke Hochevar. While simply serviceable pitchers elsewhere, these three look very impressive when compared to the talent level of the batting order.
With everything going right for the Royals in 2010 -- and if “The Process” that they've been blindly putting their faith in for three years finally reaches a desirable end – they could be a .500 team. As things look now, though, the mismanagement of general manager Dayton Moore appears to have taken a death-grip on the organization. Even in the weak AL Central, the Royals stand no chance of competing in 2010.
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