| 23 August 2010
The Twins are playing very good baseball. Having lost just one series since the All-Star Break, Minnesota has taken advantage of an easy schedule, winning 25 of their last 34 games.
A great deal of this success can be attributed to Minnesota's offense.
Far and away the best offense over the last 30 games, the Twins have seen key surges from Joe Mauer (.443/.532/.659 over last 30 games), Danny Valencia (.340/.372/.500), and Jason Kubel (.263/.333/.535). Delmon Young has managed to drastically cut his strikeout rate -- though his walk rate remains abysmally low -- and is emerging from a lengthy slump with no permanent damage.
Minnesota's pitching staff has also been impressive during this recent stretch of dominance, at least on the surface. When digging a little deeper, it's clear that the Twins still struggle with a high fly ball percentage. The team's FIP of 3.63 over the last 30 games ranks seventh in the league, though their xFIP is significantly higher because of the team's low HR/FB percentage (which is mostly a result of the spacious Target Field).
For people like me who don't have a TI-84 glued to their wrist and need further explanation, xFIP essentially counts every fly ball as 10.6 percent of a home run. In Target Field, where fly balls go to die, this statistic usually charges pitchers with more home runs than they allow. Whether or not Target Field will wind up being a pitcher-friendly park has yet to be seen – park factors are renowned for their fluctuation from year to year – but the Twins' fly ball tendencies this season are often over looked.
And because the xFIP statistic kills the Twins corporately, it also wreaks havoc individually. Over the season, just one Minnesota hurler has an xFIP under 3.00: Francisco Liriano, with 2.99. Carl Pavano (3.91), Brian Duensing (3.98), and Scott Baker (3.99) are all about a run higher.
It's clear that Minnesota's starting staff is very fly ball prone. Seeing as how the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is among the more hitter-friendly in baseball, this could pose a problem.
Don't expect too much from Minnesota's starting rotation during this crucial four-game series with the Texas Rangers. Texas will likely score about five runs per game during this contest, just like they've done all season, and it will be up to the Twins' big bats to keep pace. But that's hardly anything new.
The Twins are also averaging about 4.9 runs per game this season. In Arlington, there's no telling how potent they will be. Tonight, let's hope the run support doesn't stop anytime soon, for Nick Blackburn's sake.
This series will reveal a lot about Minnesota's playoff chances. Sure, life has been great this past month while playing the Orioles, Royals, and Indians, but how will the Twins fare against top-notch competition?
There's only one way to find out.
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