| 24 September 2009
Not much in baseball can be chalked up to chance. In an age where statistics are king, a number can be put on virtually everything that happens on the baseball diamond. But sometimes there are those instances that even the fiercest of sabermatricians can't document, analyze, or predict.
There's a stat for that immeasureable element. Hardly surprising.
Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) is a tool used as a red flag when analyzing seasons. If a player has an abnormally high or low BABIP, they will likely regress to the mean in the future. BABIP could be considered as a "luck" measure stick. The unlucky pitchers have a high BABIP, while conversely the lucky pitchers boast a BABIP under the league average of around .290.
(BABIP is calculated using the following formula: H - HR / AB - BB - SO + SF. As a disclaimer, the database I use doesn't include sacrifice flies surrendered, so the numbers will be altered by .010 or so. Not a major difference, but still significant.)
Carl Willis had the highest single-season BABIP in Twins history, among pitchers who threw in at least 40 games, with .366 in 1994. This was much higher than his career BABIP of .308, which resulted in 1994 being the worst of his career.
In recent history, other Twins with unusually high BABIP numbers include Dennys Reyes' 2007 season, Juan Rincon's 2006 season, and Bob Wells' 2002 season.
But the question we're trying to answer is, "Who are the luckiest pitchers in Twins' History?" The answers may surprise you.
| Name | Year | BABIP |
| Jesse Crain | 2005 | 0.2107 |
| Al Worthington | 1964 | 0.2129 |
| Pat Neshek | 2007 | 0.2202 |
| Ron Perranoski | 1969 | 0.2219 |
| Bill Daily | 1963 | 0.2261 |
| Tom Burgmeier | 1976 | 0.2276 |
| Rick Aguilera | 1991 | 0.2278 |
| Stan Williams | 1970 | 0.2305 |
| Gary Wayne | 1989 | 0.2318 |
| Craig Breslow | 2008 | 0.2330 |
Jesse Crain, during his excellent 2005 campaign, was the beneficiary of no small amount of luck. While this probably explained why he finished eighth in Rookie of the Year Voting, it can also account for why he's never returned to that level of dominance. Lately, though, Crain has been putting up lights-out numbers. In the past 28 days Crain has a BABIP of .125.
Pat Neshek had some luck on his side as well during 2007, his last full season. While his career BABIP is just .236, he may be due for some serious regression next year.
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