A Premature Look at the 2010 Twins

Written by Andrew Kneeland

Saturday, 26 December 2009 15:29

I don't claim to know my way around a spreadsheet better than most, but I do enjoy numbers and appreciate their value. Numbers can be great as both evaluators and predictors of performance. With that in mind, I wanted to take some time to lay out what the current roster of the 2010 Twins looks like, and predict how many wins we can expect next season.

Now, I realize that the offseason isn't over. Another move could easily impact the projections you see below, either for better or worse. Personally, though, I very seriously doubt the Twins make a major move between now and the beginning of the season -- aside from the locking up Mr. Mauer, of course.

Anyway, here are the projected number of wins the Twins will enjoy for the 2010 season, based on Chone's projections and Jeff's wonderful wOBA to WAR conversion spreadsheet. Also worth mentioning is that these totals are above replacement, which means that anything seen below will need to be added to the projected wins a Quadruple-A team would have over the course of a season, but I'll cover that later.

Also, Chone's projections are known for being conservative, but not necessarily inaccurate. These projections do not factor in defense. For the sake of clarity (and my sanity) I'll consider the 2010 Twins to be a league-average defensive team for this example. Here are the batters, followed by the pitchers.

Position - Name - Projected wOBA - '10 WAR

C - Joe Mauer - 0.396 - 7.7
1B - Justin Morneau - 0.365 - 3.3
2B - Nick Punto - 0.304 - 1.0
SS - JJ Hardy - 0.314 - 2.1
3B - Danny Valencia - 0.295 - 0.4
LF - Delmon Young - 0.330 - 1.6
CF - Denard Span - 0.347 - 3.6
RF - Michael Cuddyer - 0.348 - 2.7
DH - Jason Kubel - 0.351 - 1.4

Total offensive WAR = 23.8

Position - Name - Projected RAR - '10 WAR

SP - Scott Baker - 36 - 3.6
SP - Kevin Slowey - 21 - 2.1
SP - Nick Blackburn - 20 - 2.0
SP - Carl Pavano - 15 - 1.5
SP - Brian Duensing - 14 - 1.4
RP - Jesse Crain - 4 - 0.4
RP - Matt Guerrier - 3 - 0.3
RP - Bobby Keppel - 0 - 0
RP - Jon Rauch - 5 - 0.5
RP - Jose Mijares - 2 - 0.2
RP - Pat Neshek* - 10 - 1.0
RP - Joe Nathan - 15 - 1.5

Total pitching WAR = 14.5

(* Chone doesn't have a projection for Neshek, so I came up with the completely arbitrary number of 10 runs above replacement.)

This calculates to a grand total of 38.3 wins above replacement for the 2010 season. Although debatable, a replacement-level team is generally regarded among the statistical community to be capable of winning 50 games, this puts the projected win total of the 2010 Minnesota Twins at 88, one more than what it was last season.

With this in mind, should the Twins spring for a couple of expensive three-WAR players to push their projected win total to 93? As Nate Silver finds in an essay in the book "Baseball Between the Numbers," a win is much for valuable to a team that is projected to win between 84 and 94 games. Just as an example, if the Twins signed a five-WAR free agent their chances of reaching the postseason would increase by more than 50 percent, based on data from '96-'05. This 50 percent increase would clearly be significant, and shows just how important it is to get over the 90-win plateau.

If the Twins splurge on a player like Adrian Beltre (projected 2.8 WAR) or Orlando Hudson (projected 2.5 WAR), their chances of reaching the postseason would dramatically increase.

Knowing Bill Smith and the Twins, though, I expect no more moves to be made this offseason, and the 2010 AL Central will most likley come down to the wire once again.

Comments (7) Add Comment

Kubel
written by Ben K, December 26, 2009

Is there a reason you did not include the WAR being projected for Kubel at the DH position?

Mea culpa
written by andrewkneeland, December 26, 2009

Absolutely not, Ben, thanks for the catch.

Dirt Cheap
written by Jack Steal, December 27, 2009

Andrew,

Nice breakdown!! You are correct sir!! More nickel and dime stuff from the cheapest team on earth. I think Joe Mauer will sign a long-term deal with the Twins but would not be shocked if it did not happen this off-season. GM Bill Smith does not appear to be in any hurry when it comes to making moves and why should he be when another bargain (Batista, Castro, White, Everett, Lamb, Ponson) are just around the corner.

other potential moves
written by doofus, December 27, 2009

I can see the Twins signing an IF to a low contract. I don't think the Twins will spend this much money on a team and not upgrade either 2B or more likely 3B. I can see a Kouzmanoff trade, or Crede, or Tejada. I can also see the Twins signing someone like Brett Myers for the rotation on a 1 year low base plus incentive contract. These moves won't cost alot but could improve the Twins chances. The Twins are waiting for the market to settle in their favor which it will in the next 30 days watch and be patient.

But seeing where the Twins are projected to be now based on statistical models shows what everyone else already know but with the evidence to back it up and that is the Twins need to make a few tweeks to make the team capable of winning in the playoffs and winning 90+ games during the season next year.

Other Teams
written by rosterman, December 27, 2009

Of course, we have to look at the numbers put up by the other teams in the division. If ALL the teams were in the same boat (80+ wins)...well, someone has to lose.

Re: Other teams
written by andrewkneeland, December 27, 2009

Yes, rosterman, I plan on doing this for the other AL Central teams, but haven't had a chance. The status of other teams obviously plays a huge role in deciding whether or not a team will be postseason-bound.

Thanks for the comments, guys!

Twins 2010
written by Xeifrank, March 02, 2010

Good job. One comment would be that most people use 48, not 50 wins as the replacement level baseline. That would put your total at 86 not 88. You could probably add another win or two with the Hudson and Thome signings.

I ran the entire 2010 season through my baseball simulator with a similar set of player projections. I played every single game on the 2010 schedule 10,000 times for every team. I then added each teams win expectancy for each game to come up with a 2010 win total. The Twins ended up with 86.5 wins in my exercise. Hudson and Thome were added to the Twins roster during the middle of my exercise, so I would feel comfortable giving them 87.5 wins. My total is very similar to yours. Here is my link, where you can see the totals for all teams.

http://dodgersims.blogspot.com/2010/01/simulating-entire-2010-season.html

vr, Xeifrank